Penanti - PKR wins big, but turnout lowest ever

Wow. Fewer than half of the 15,384 voters in Penanti came out to cast ballots.
A historic low of 46.15 per cent, according to Malaysiakini.

Yet PKR candidate Mansor Othman, oppo chief's Anwar Ibrahim's former pol sec, after failing three times to get elected, WON BY A BIGGER MAJORITY than the 2,219 votes the last time.
He got a majority of 6,052.

The three independents all lost their RM5,000 deposits (They will most likely get back the RM3,000 poster deposits because they did not put up much posters and buntings that needed to be taken out, or else).
To keep their deposits, they needed to win at least one-eighth (or 12.5 per cent) of the votes cast. None of the trio did.



1) This is how the opposition will play the issue:

- PKR did NOT lose face. In fact it won bigtime.
- It can crow to the world that Umno-BN is in deep trouble.
This is because of the 7,100 who bothered to vote, 85 per cent plunked for Mansor, the man with three masters degrees (Depa ni banyak sangat belajar, sekarang kita nak tengok depa boleh buat kerja ke tidak sebagai Deputy Chief Minister I). Six out of seven people who cast ballots voted for Dr Mansor.
- 'Minah Ronggeng', she tried hard didn't she? - was not even in second place! She got into third which shows that voters don't buy the issues that local media put on page1 and played up besau-besau.
In there is a lesson for mainstream media.


2) This is how the government and local media will play the issue:

- You can expect these in comments by government politicians - the turnout was very low because the by-election was pointless.
- We made the right decision not to contest because of voter fatigue.
- Sure, PKR won big, but that was because Umno-BN did not contest (Of course Umno-BN won't say it was because it was scared).


One question that I really want to know:
Did many PAS members in Penanti boycotted the by-e?
If true, the implications are big. Sure Pakatan Rakyat will continue on as usual outside Penang, but DAP must move in to calm the PAS ground that it is accepted.
See here on my argument why I thought some PAS members would have given the by-e a miss.

Just as important for both Pakatan and Umno-BN:
If they want to slice and dice the numbers.
The 6,052 could be interpreted as the absolute hardcore opposition voters.
They form 39 per cent of the total 15,384 registered voters in he constituency, a hardcore opposition stronghold (being part of Anwar's Permatang Pauh).
Someone will later come out with the racial backgrounds, which will be significant also. To see how the Malays voted (the Chinese and Indians we all know are still strongly backing Pakatan).