Myanmar morons say Rohingyas don't exist

Life has many strange twists and turns.
But the story below made me instantly angry - a denial by Ketuanan Burman about the existence of one of its minorities.
Imagine, if in propagating Malaysia's Ketuanan Melayu concept (Malay Supremacy), the existence of the Chinese or Indian or Orang Asli is denied.
How lucky are Malaysia's minorities.... Hahaha.

And yet, while denying that the Rohingyas came from their territory, the repressive generals - who profess a different religion from these refugees - said they will take "necessary measures" to stop the outflow of these poor people.
You can bet your last kyat (the Myanmar currency) they won't use moral suasion, when bullets and long-term jail sentences can do the job faster.

And where is Asean?
Both Thailand and Indonesia, recent recipients of these refugees, are already calling the Rohingyas "economic migrants". This means that since they are not political asylum-seekers, they could be sent back.
Errrr, send back to where they did NOT come from? How ah?
Yet, even the white-men countries that talked so much about freedom won't take these poor people with no skills.

Nobody in Asean has the gall to stand up to say: 'These are your people from within your border. Since you don't know where they came from, let me show you a map of your country to show you where they come from. The area is called Arakan or Rakhine state, morons. You guys failed Geography or what?'

This, then, is all about the much-vaunted Asean unity, brotherhood and the famous non-interference with one another. Oh, Asean even has its own constitution now! Yay, we're civilised!
Let us invest in Myanmar's oil and gas fields, buy their rubies and build hotels there. "We want to engage them, not isolate them."

Asean was cowardly when 100,000 Buddhist monks took to the streets and then got whacked, so you can bet your last jade-necklace it won't do shit about this issue.
I am not asking for an invasion, at least use harsh language lah.
Wake up those murderous fatties at bit.
Shame on you, Asean.

PICTURES taken by my Bangkok colleague Nirmal Ghosh who went to the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. This top reporter can also take great pictures - see here.


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Myanmar promises "measures" over Rohingya issue

YANGON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Myanmar's junta stepped into the deepening Rohingya crisis on Friday, denying any of the Muslim boat people washing up in Thailand, India and Indonesia were from its soil, but promising to take unspecified "measures".

"The Rohinja is not included in over 100 national races of the Union of Myanmar," it said in all state-controlled papers, its first reaction since reports surfaced two weeks ago of the Thai army towing migrants out to sea and leaving them to die.

Rohinja is an alternative spelling for the Muslim minority from Rakhine state in the former Burma's northwest.

"Moreover, a statement released yesterday by Thailand did not mention that those who made attempt to illegally enter Thailand from the sea were from Myanmar," the announcement added.

"Nevertheless, the departments concerned of the Government of Myanmar will take necessary measures in connection with the above matter," it continued, without elaboration.

Narinjara News, a Dhaka-based Rakhine news agency, reported this week that a Myanmar artillery battalion had been redeployed in December from the former capital, Yangon, to Buthidaung, a town in the midst of Rohingya villages.

More than 500 Rohingya are feared to have drowned since early December after being towed out to sea by the Thai military and abandoned in rickety boats without functioning engines.

The army has admitted cutting them loose, but said they had food and water and denied the engines were sabotaged.

Thailand is trying to depict them as illegal economic migrants, and paraded a group of 78 intercepted on Monday on domestic television, showing off wounds the migrants said were inflicted by Myanmar naval officials.

DEPORTATION FEARS

Survivors of some of the Thai "push-backs" have corroborated the reports of Myanmar abuse, with one man who washed up on Indonesia's Aceh province in early January telling Al Jazeera television he faced certain death if sent back to Myanmar.

Indonesia's foreign ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said an investigation so far indicated that 193 Rohingya being housed in a naval base in Aceh were economic migrants and that Jakarta was checking if the men were sent back they would be safe.

The probe also indicated suspicions of people smugglers being involved, he told a media briefing, without elaborating.

In a bid to avert international outrage, Thailand allowed UN refugee workers on Thursday to see 12 children among the 78, who are in police custody in the southern province of Ranong awaiting almost certain deportation.

However, deputy Foreign Ministry spokesman Thani Thongpajkdi said the UN visit to the 12 had "no implications for their legal status".

UN Spokeswoman Kitty McKinsey said she could not discuss the children's testimony without approval from the Thai government.

AirAsia to build LCCT in KLIA - meeting just ended

UPDATE 9.15PM ------------------

You would've have read elsewhere by now.

The government led by Najib Razak (since Abdullah Badawi is as good as a goner), as Deputy PM, incoming PM and Finance Minister, today decided to flip-flop on a Cabinet approval for a new airport to be built by Tony Fernandes of AirAsia.
(First time I kinda like a government flip-flop, though, again, malu-lah Malaysia for not thinking through things carefully, as the outgoing PM was, again, easily influenced by vested interests).

But Tony will get a big say on how the new terminal, The Rakyat-Wins Terminal I call it, is run.
No stupidities such as two control towers, two separate CIQs, more new highways and being 22km apart between Airport LabuLabi and KLIA.
I hope Malaysia Airports and AirAsia can work well together though. Let us all hope so.

Enough said.


PICTURE: Now I can remove this mousetrap logo from my site!


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As said here.



More later.

AirAsia meets Najib over Airport LabuLabi today

Today, Friday, AirAsia boss Tony Fernandes has a scheduled meeting with Finance Minister Najib Razak and other finmin officials to tell them why he should be allowed to build his dream airport despite reservations by many people. Me included.

The word is, Najib will roll back the Cabinet approval for the project and ask Tony to site his budget terminal within KLIA.
But Tony will likely get more say over how the upcoming LCCT@KLIA, The Rakyat-Wins Terminal will be run. And Malaysia Airports will have to listen to him more.

If this happens, then all is good.
As I said, I am not against AirAsia - heck, I flew Singapore-KL-Singapore in its planes regularly. Like me, there are many people out there who want better utilisation and connectivity for KLIA.
And higher safety than having two control towers within 10km of one another.
Tony should reduce a bit his big head, as should MAB, and work together.

Read news on Myanmar repression here

The fate of the Rohingyas from Arakan, or Rakhine, state in Myanmar is painful to read.
Born poor - not given citizenship by the arrogant government, which opens the way to abuse - and forced to run to another country.
Many of them ended up in Bangladesh beside the Myanmar border.
Others took chances at getting into Thailand and Malaysia - where there are jobs - via rickety boats. Get beaten up, robbed, towed to sea to die.
And they are not the only minorities bullied and murdered in Myanmar.

I met with several Myanmar community leaders in Malaysia some years ago to do a story on this hidden community - some of them lived in Cheras.
I also met one of them while in Mecca some years back. He saw me as a Malaysian and we spoke in Bahasa Melayu because he worked in Malaysia before.
Malaysia, the land of plenty, is a magnet for foreigners (myself included!).

Anyway, in Jakarta a few months ago for a seminar, I met the executive editor of Kaladan Press Network, Mohamed Taher, whose online news report sad, sad news out of this country that abuse human beings openly. Kaladan is based in Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Read the news here - www.kaladanpress.org.
Or alternatively, go to Irrawaddy Online - www.irrawaddy.org.

Only the heartless won't cry, at least a bit, for the plight of the Rohingyas, Chins, Karens, Shans, Mons, etc.
About a third of the 50 million population of Myanmar are not of the majority race, Burmans.

My Bangkok-based colleague, Nirmal Ghosh, went to Teknaf near the Myanmar border to report on what he saw of the refugees. See here.

Myanmar is blessed with gas and oil, the best red-ruby diamonds and jade are from there. They sell timber and buy weapons. They sell rice and award road projects.
So naturally enough, the governments of India, China and even Asean, dance with this wolf.

Malaysia mulls 3-day working week (Wow)

I just wrote yesterday about this taxi driver in Singapore who said his daughter has been forced to take two weeks of 'vacation time' for every 3 months of work - an effective pay cut.
And now this news below.

I was in 1987 hit by a 10 per cent pay cut at my company, and then a 30 per cent pay cut, and was subsequently retrenched in Singapore (at the height of the 1985-87 deep recession that hit Malaysia and Singapore). So I feel very sad over this kind of news.
I was jobless for eight months, guys, and subsequently switched from engineering to journalism.

Let's hope things will work out. Penang and Selangor, the two most industrialised states with many manufacturing companies, need to worry the most.

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Malaysia plans to allow 3-day week to avoid layoffs

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Malaysia’s government is to allow companies and factories to move to a three-day week in order to preserve employment at a time of falling demand for
its exports and plant closures by major foreign companies.
Malaysia exports are equivalent to its gross domestic product and the exports fell for the second successive month in November, with the electrical sector that accounts for around
40 per cent of the total especially hard hit.
Japanese electronics giant Panasonic Corp is to close two of its three Malaysian plants, according to press reports this week.
U.S. company Western Digital Corp is to close a plant employing 1,500 workers here while Intel Corp is to close two of its assembly plants, according to local press reports.
"It is the duty of the department to ensure that workers were adequately protected and at the same time, companies did not lose out," Labour director-general Ismail Abdul Rahim told
state news agency Bernama on Thursday.
Ismail, outlining the plan for the three-day week, said that workers would have to agree to the shorter working week.
Malaysia’s government is scrambling to put together a second fiscal package to boost the economy after an earlier round of spending worth almost $2 billion came under fire for
being too little and too late...

Most private sector economists believe that Malaysia will slide into its first recession since 2001.
A Malaysian government official said recently that almost 45,000 workers, mostly in electronics, would be laid off as a result of the slowdown in global demand.
Malaysia’s unemployment rate was 3.3 per cent, according to the latest data.

Ku Li, again, drops pearls for Umno

Rising waters

It's one thing to have found ourselves waist high in water last March. It's another to observe the waters rising steadily almost a year later.
Little wonder that our members at all levels are losing confidence in the future of the party. Because of this I do not think it is right for our leaders to play down the significance of our losing Nasarudin, or to belittle his intentions.
That would be to make the same mistake as to play down the significance of our now being unable to win elections.

More in his blog here.

Recession bites everywhere - Bagaimana di M'sia?

UPDATE 1.25PM
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Not nice to read, I know.

LOS ANGELES: A man shot and killed his wife and five young children — including two sets of twins — before taking his own life Tuesday, possibly out of despair from losing a job, the authorities said.
Officers responding to 911 calls placed by the man, and by a television station that he had sent a fax to around 8:30 a.m. local time, found seven bodies in a house in Wilmington, a working-class neighborhood near the Port of Los Angeles. See here.

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I took a cab to work just now.
The taxi driver told me that his daughter, who works at a property consulting company, has started a forced-leave regime at her company.
She is forced to take a 2-week vacation every 3 months.
This is effectively a pay cut. I calculated about a 17 per cent pay cut, though her pain is reduced cos she can sit at home for about 5 extra days every month (saves money on buses/MRT/food and time) .
But at least she retains her job.
And she also gets time off, rather than has to take a pay cut while working in full.

The cab driver was complaining about how there are so so few takers these days that he is thinking of returning his cab and do something else.
I take cabs daily to work (cos I live v close to my office) and the cab drivers are my weather vane on issues.

Everyone here seems to be saying things will get worse after the Lunar New Year celebrations as the recession bites harder.

On page 1 of my company's newspaper, the bleak news continue: over 90,000 jobs lost in US and Europe in the first two days of Year of Ox.
They include 26,000 laid off at Pfizer (world's biggest drugmaker), 20,000 at Caterpillar (world's largest maker of heavy equipment), 9,000 at NEC Tokin (Japanese electronic maker), and 8,000 at Sprint Nextel (the giant US mobile phone company).
And the government in Iceland, hit hard by the econ crisis, had collapsed.

On a positive point, a colleague who was a Malaysian (now changed citizenship) told me that her family was in Malaysia for the Lunar New Year holidays. There was not much complaints about the econ recession.
That is good I guess, though I think the time lag of this thing takes longer in Malaysia. And Malaysia kena bite a little softer by the sick oxen.

An economist friend of mine told me why:
He said Singapore's exports form 60 per cent of its GDP (economic output).
Malaysia's exports form 45 per cent of GDP.
Exports out of Indonesia, where he is based, is just 12 per cent of its GDP.
This means Malaysia will suffer less in global econ crisis cos it caters more to local consumption.
I guess unless you work in manufacturing or services that cater to international market (like ports, backroom operations of international banksfor eg) you are quite safe.
Indonesia will fare even better in these bad times, unlike the 'international' city Singapore.
Good lah, if this is true.

Take care, braders and sistahs.

DUN Bota - Let's have a by-election!

After the shock of the defection, Umno must now see whether it wants to REALLY push Bota assemblyman Nasarudin Hashim to vacate his seat.
He should, of course, morally step down from his seat.

Then Umno must think carefully whether it wants to hold a by-election there!
The seat is 98 per cent Malay, the rest being Chinese, Indians and Orang Asli.

The Bota state assembly (DUN N39) is one of two DUNs under the Parit Parliamentary seat.
The other DUN is Belanja N38, which was also won by Umno in the March general elections.
(I guess we can joke: Kalau kita Belanja di sini, boleh jadi Botak).

With an overwhelming Malay majority in Bota, it would even be better than Kuala Terengganu, with its 11 per cent Chinese vote.
Many people kept saying that many urban Malays (those in Subang Jaya and PJ types) already reject Umno.
So Bota can show us whether the rural Malays also reject Umno.
It will be a better, pure indication of REAL rural Malay support than KT, in that sense.

On the flip side, many people want to see whether rural Malays ACCEPT Anwar Ibrahim's multiracial PKR, which have been talking about help based on needs, not race.

Plus Perak is controlled by Pakatan Rakyat, just like Penang and the battle for Permatang Pauh, so we will see how Umno-BN performs without the whole state machinery behind them.

After KT, many people including me, thought the next by-e will be for Pensiangan in Sabah - see here. It's interesting to be wrong.

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MAP: Parit constituency, where Bota DUN is located, is southwest of Ipoh.

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Details from the website of Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya (Election Commission) here.

Kapt (B) Hj Usaili Alias PKR 4,488
Nasarudin Hashim Umno-BN 6,556.
Majority 2,068.

Total registered voters 14,389.
Voter turnout 11,338 (78.8 per cent).


Umno-BN won the Belanja seat by defeating PAS.
This means that Umno-BN will go into the contest with strength, unlike in KT.
In the KT Paraliament seat, three of the four DUNs were won by PAS.
In Parit, Perak, the two DUNs were with Umno and the Parliament seat too is held by Umno (Ustaz Nizar Zakaria of Umno).
So it cannot say, if it loses, that it was a pro-opposition area.

And if PKR loses... surely then it means Anwar have a lot of work to do to prove to Malays that he is not about to sell Malay rights to the rest. Ie, he cannot find excuses to say this was an Umno stronghold, because Nasarudin Hashim was in Umno all along, and should have been able to pull the Malay votes into PKR.

Then again, we are too far ahead of the curve. Nothing has been decided on whether there will be a by-e or not.
Rilek, brader.

Umno diBOTAkkan di Perak, Who's next?

Apols to Perakians, but I have never heard of the state constituency of Bota, Perak.
Nor the name of its assemblyman.
But the Umno guy from there has not created a huge ripple by defecting to Anwar Ibrahim's PKR.
Who is next?

The next few days that will be the biggest question people will ask, as it now seems that not only are voters and BN component parties tired with the Grand Ole Party, its own leaders also dah muak.
So WHO is next? Maybe we should ask Anwar what he has been doing in his Penang home state.

The Lunar new year is about the lunar-moon.
Bulan nak mengambang?


UPDATE 5.45PM
------------------

Another question is, Umno will make noises asking this guy to resign from his post as state assemblyman. Fair enough.
Will Umno then call for a BY-ELECTION in Bota???
Dare it???

Kuala Terengganu has shown that it cannot even win in a Malay-majority area.
But the data showed that the Chinese stayed with BN for the most part. The candidate was from PAS.
In a mixed constituency such as Bota - let's hope I get some breakdown of voters soon - and with a candidate from PKR, can Umno win???

Tough days ahead for the party.
Mana dia punya presiden?
Masih holiday kat Middle East with our taxpayers money, isit? (in the fake name of 'making a visit' - nak buat apa visit when he is stepping down??? Especially when the country is in economic trouble and the party is about to die.)

Nian Nian You Yu

Year in Year out, have Abundance!

As one hell closes, Gitmo East@Iraq opens

Errrr Mom, you won't believe what I just heard....
As Barack is about to close a hellhole called Guantanamo aka Gitmo, someone else wants to reopen a refurbished facility.
But perhaps in a little bit of play like KLIA East @ Labu, this facility won't use its old name (I mean who wants to call the new Labu place LCCT, right?)
Maybe I should persuade the Iraqis to call it, errrr, The Rakyat's Jail...

PICTURE: Abu Ghraib from the air. You can bet there is no pesky swamp land to fill up here, or foxy ERL line that blocks its expansion...

MEANWHILE,
IN a faraway land called Malaysia, the government has become very responsive. Like suddenly.
It is saying that the Airport LabuLabi may need a rethink.
Everyone has been summoned to meet next Friday to discuss the issue.
If AirAsia agrees after the meeting that it could indeed build its The Rakyat's Terminal within KLIA, then what happens to its arguments about swampy land and ERL line?

And in another responsive move, the government has agreed to put the case of A.Kugan, suspected car thief, on an urgent basis. It is calling the case as murder.

So good. After BN kena kicked in the ass three times in the last three polls, at least incoming PM Najib Razak knows he has to act fast. If he had left it to the lame-ducky world-touring PM (I bet you he is using The Rakyat's Jet), I guess the government would still be not aware that the game has changed.
The government just does not have the Prestige it had before.

Necessity, they say, is the Mom of All Inventions.


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Iraq to reopen Abu Ghraib prison

BAGHDAD (AP) – Iraq will reopen the notorious Abu Ghraib prison next month, but it’s getting a facelift and a new name, a senior justice official said Saturday.
The announcement comes as the U.S. military has begun handing over detainees in its custody to the Iraqis under a new security agreement.
The renovated facility will be called Baghdad’s Central Prison because the name Abu Ghraib has left a “bitter feeling inside Iraqis’ hearts,” deputy Justice Minister Busho Ibrahim said.
Abu Ghraib, which was a torture center under Saddam Hussein andlater came to symbolize American mistreatment of some prisoners captured in Iraq, has been closed since 2006.
The prison will house 3,500 inmates when it reopens in mid-February and will have a capacity for about 15,000 by the end of this year, Ibrahim told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.
He said the facility will be operated according to international standards.
Last year, the government said it would turn a section of the280-acre (113-hectare) prison into a museum documenting Saddam’s crimes but not the abuses committed by U.S. guards.

Obama's will use this secret smartphone

I thought my Blackberry and Palm were high-end already.

This one to be used by President Obama very the ajaib one.

He loves his Blackberry so much, they designed a special one for him, so that state secrets will remain just that.

Click here - to read story. Ugly lah.

They call it Obamaphone.

Next he will have his own Batmobile.

S'pore cuts taxes, dips into reserves amid gloom

As I said previously, Singapore's economy is expected to shrink by MINUS 2 to MINUS 5 per cent this year - the worst ever since its independence in 1965.
So, the government has asked President SR Nathan for the key to open up the reserves for the FIRST time.
I didn't know this before - Singapore "official" foreign reserves was at US$234.5 billion - RM844 billion! Banyak tu.
And note the word "official". It means there could be more, unofficially! Yahoo.

The most worrying thing for me is the government prediction that 10,000 people lost their jobs last year (out of some 2.5 million in workforce). This year, job losses could triple to 30,000 people, not seen even in 1997/98 Asian crisis!
- The 10,000/30,000 would be mere nothings in countries such as India, Indonesia or even Malaysia.
- But Singaporeans are not used to hearing words such as 'unemployment', 'the mall is closed today', or 'Starbucks has ran out of latte'.
- We'd go mad!

Also:

- TAXPAYERS will get a a 20 per cent tax rebate on their income for this year of assessment, to be capped at $2,000.
- Singapore cut its corporate tax rate from 18 to 17 per cent for the year of assessment 2010 to boost competitiveness and lure investment to spur job creation.
- It will spend S$20.5 billion on a slew of measures to help companies and save jobs.
- Individual tax residents who have lost their jobs in 2008 or this year will also be able to pay their personal income taxes this year in instalments of up to 24 months, up from the current 12 months.
- Owner-occupied residential owners will get a 40 per cent property tax rebate this year.
- More than 10,000 people were retrenched last year and a worsening economy may result in job losses tripling in 2009 (alamak, 30,000 jobless!!!), reaching numbers not seen since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, the government said.


All the extra spending comes at a price, but is surely worth paying:

- The stimulus package will result in a budget deficit of about 6 per cent of gross domestic product - Singapore's largest ever - for FY 2009. That translates to $14.9 billion.

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From The Straits Times, Singapore.
http://www.straitstimes.com


SINGAPORE will tap on its past reserves for the first time, as part of measures to fight what is likely its worst-ever recession, Finance Minister Tharman Shanumugaratnam announced on Thursday.

'The president has given his in-principle approval' to fund $4.9 billion worth of recession-relief measures from the reserves,' Mr Tharman said during his budget speech in Parliament.

The reserves include assets managed by the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) and Temasek Holdings, funds - both sovereign wealth funds, which have invested billions of dollars over the past year helping to bail out troubled global financial institutions.

Singapore's official foreign reserves were estimated at US$234.5 billion in 2007.

Unveiling a $20.5 billion Resilience Package, Mr Tharman said the Government had made its case to the President and his advisors, based on the 'extraordinary' circumstances.

He said the government plans to spend $4.9 billion on two new anti-recessionary measures, a jobs credit scheme and Special Risk-Sharing Initiative, to be introduced in FY 2009.

Of the $4.9 billion, $1.1 billion will be incurred in FY 2008; the remaining $3.8 billion is to be spent in FY 2009.

He gave the assurance that the Singapore government will not be borrowing to fund its budget needs - a move which other governments have undertaken to the detriment of their sovereign credit ratings.

'We have substantial reserves for Singapore, well in excess of our liabilities,' Mr Tharman said. 'They are a valuable asset for us in responding to this unprecedented crisis.'

The government has refrained from dipping into its reserves when it ran budget deficits previously. The assets have been 'painstakingly accumulated' and shouldn't be squandered on wasteful programs, then Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong told parliament in 1999.

On the need to tap the reserves, Mr Tharman said: 'The Government has sufficient savings built up during this term of government to fund the measures we are taking and the resulting budget deficit.

'Nevertheless, we have decided instead to fund the two extraordinary measures within the Resilience Package from our past reserves.

'In view of the extraordinary circumstances, which require a commensurate response, the Government has sought the President's approval to draw on past reserves to fund these two measures now, rather than wait till we exhaust the savings of the current government.

'Tapping on past reserves now gives us the resources that we need to deal decisively with the current economic crisis and also ensures that we have all the resources we need to respond to the considerable uncertainties that lie ahead.

'It will allow us full flexibility to respond as the situation requires, and to pre-empt the severe consequences that this crisis could have for our economy and society.'

Obama - 44th Prez is AOK, says numbers man

I joked here that Obama being the 44th President of the US of A is bad luck, cos to the Chinese double-4 means "sey" "sey" - mati dua kali.
Now this Indo guys says not!
Yet I wonder - if he is telling the truth, how come my estate in Wangsa Maju deleted the 44th House number?
Kelentong lah orang nih!

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JAKARTA, Jan 22, 2009 (AFP) - An Indonesian numerologist has predicted good
fortune for 44th US President Barack Obama despite 44 being an unlucky number
associated with death in Chinese culture, a report said Thursday.
In Mandarin the words for four and death are the same but numbers expert
Udin, also a feng shui master of 20 years, said it was auspicious to be the
44th president, The Jakarta Globe daily reported.
"Talking about his position as the 44th American president, it is actually
a good number according to Chinese numerology because four plus four equals
eight, and eight is a lucky number," he was quoted as saying.
Four in China is like 13 in Western countries. Many Chinese buildings will not have a fourth floor or any other storey featuring a number four.
Despite this, Udin foretold greatness for Obama's presidency.
"My vision tells me that 2009 is a lucky year for Obama because he is 47 and in numerology, it's a good time to do something great until 49, and obviously that is a good sign for the country he is leading," he said.
2009 is the Year of the Ox in the Chinese calendar and the new president was born in 1961, also the Year of the Ox.
People born in the Year of the Ox are characterised as hard-working and stubborn, according to Chinese tradition.
"It means that Obama has to try hard to save his nation and sometimes he should ignore critics' opinions on his policies," Udin said.
As for Indonesia, where Obama spent four years as a child, Udin's visions held little hope.
"Indonesia should not expect too much from Obama because good fortune is far from us," he said.

S'pore economy may SHRINK 5 pct! Aiyo

In my long adult life (I am 49), Singapore went through its worst recession in 2001 - I was working in Malaysia then - when the economy shrank 2.4 per cent.
Today, the Singapore government has just said that the econ may shrink by as much as 5 per cent this year.
This is unprecedented.

I was retrenched in 1987, and was jobless for eight months, forcing me to switch from an engineering job to journalism (recession also people still want to buy newspapers, if only to look at job ads!). I got the job as a journo 22 years ago after writing about 300 letters to employers. There was no such thing as email then. I typed everything and sent using snail-mail, pakai setem.
So the government forecast of MINUS 2 to MINUS 5 is very worrying.
In simple terms this means that Singapore's 2009 gross domestic product - total economic output - will be smaller than the 2008 one.
Die.

The Singapore budget will be unveiled tomorrow, Thursday.
Already, Singapore officials are talking about dipping into the country's billions of dollars of reserves to ensure people have jobs.
Again, this has never happened before.

It did not dip into the reserves when the 1997/98 Asian economic crisis happened, and not during 911 and Sars (when economy shrank 2.4 per cent).
So you can imagine how bad things are.
Malaysia? Things are cloudy but generally okay still , its political leaders say.


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The Straits Times. From straitstimes.com.

SINGAPORE, which is facing its 'sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession' from the fast-deteriorating global economy, further revised its GDP growth forecast on Wednesday to between -5 per cent and -2 per cent this year.
This is lower than the -2 per cent to 1 per cent growth range it had forecast on Jan 2. The economy grew 1.2 per cent last year, less than earlier estimated.
A 5-per-cent slump this year would be the worst-ever on record.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said the downward revision was mainly due to worst-than-expected decline of the world economy and its 'much stronger' spillover into the region's economies.
Mr Ravi Menon, MTI's second permanent secretary said: 'What took us by surprise ... is the depth of the deterioration in global economic activity and, second the spillover it has on the region and Singapore.
'Typically you do not see this kind of collapse in trade so early in the cycle.'
Preliminary data showed that the Singapore economy grew 1.2 per cent last year compared with 7.7 per cent in 2007.
GDP shrank by 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter - worse than the 2.6-per cent drop in the advance estimate.
It also plunged about 16.9 per cent last quarter from the previous three months - more steep than the 12.5 per cent retreat in the flash estimate and the largest quarterly decline on record.
The manufacturing sector is estimated to have shrank by 4.1 per cent, down from an expansion of 5.8 per cent in 2007.
Several clusters - electronics, precision engineering, and chemicals - were affected by the rapid decline in demand in Singapore's key export markets, especially in the final quarter of 2008.

Obama - 42nd-A president of the United States

In the Wangsa Maju neighbourhood where I live (when I am in KL), the House beside House No. 12 is House No. 12A.
The one beside number 22 is 22A, and the one beside 42, is 42A.
The project's developer is Chinese and will not use the numbers 4, 14, 24, and 44.

Since that row of houses are all even numbered, you have Houses with numbers 2, 2A, 6, 8, 10, 12 and then 12A, 16, 18.
Further down the row are Houses 38, 40, 42 and then 42A.

And now we have Barack Hussein Obama being appointed the 44th president of the US of A.
Suay or not?
Can we in Singapore and Malaysia call Obama the 42nd-A President???
Just to ensure his luck run does not run out?

I know many Malays in Singapore and Malaysia, although they do not believe in this numbering thing, avoid buying cars and houses with 'bad luck' numbers so that they could be easily sold to Chinese buyers later.
A friend of mine bought car number 44. He complained of low offers when he wanted to sell it to car salesmen. Serves him right for being stupid.

Ahem, I am glad to report that my previous House was No. 9 in a different KL neighbourhood.
Now, I live in House number 8 (PICTURE: My silver Ferrari Jet Turbo, red Proton Jumbuck truck and favourite dog, George W).

S'pore whacks senior civil servant for showing off

Singapore civil servants are often criticised by the public for being high-handed policymakers who did not think things through when doing their work - similar to everywhere else, I guess.
Still, the top ones are often thought to be overly-protected by the government, molly-coddled say the Americans.
The senior ones are often very highly-paid. And they most kept out of the limelight.

So when a very senior person wrote in my paper, ST Singapore, that he and his family spent S$46,500 (RM107,000!!!) to take French cooking classes for five weeks in Paris, gasps were heard around the tiny red dot called Sinciapo, formerly Temasek.

Internet chatter jumped over the issue - yes, Singapore, too, has Netizens who attack the government, though most of them have to hide behind psuedonyms.
See a critical Net story and pictures here.

The guy, Mr Tan Yong Soon, was using his own money to go to Paris, sure, and doing it on his own time too.
(This is of course unlike some Malaysian officials who went abroad with their families, allegedly, using money from Malaysian taxpayers like me).
He could afford it too, as his wife also earns a big salary as a senior investment consellor at a bank
But the guy is no ordinary joe. He is a Permanent Secretary and was showing off at a time when Singapore is going through a recession. Thousands have lost jobs and others are worried they could be next!

So today Mr Tan kena whack publicly and officially by the government. He kena whack already privately by the government, as the story below shows.
A Permanent Secretary or PermSec in Singapore, is the highest ranking civil servant who is NOT a politician.
In a Malaysian ministry, his equivalent title would be Director General or Ketua Pengarah.
Above a PermSec or KP is a Political Secretary, a political appointee.

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The Straits Times, Singapore. Jan 20, 2009.

Perm sec's article showed lack of sensitivity, says Teo


MINISTER TEO Chee Hean has criticised a permanent secretary for writing about attending a cooking course in Paris, amid gloomy economic times at home.

The newspaper article was 'ill-judged' and showed a 'lack of sensitivity', said Mr Teo, the Minister in charge of the Civil Service, yesterday.

A five-week basic cuisine course at the Le Cordon Bleu cookery school costs Euro7,750 (S$15,270) per person while basic lessons on baking cost Euro5,650.

Mr Tan Yong Soon, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Environment and Water Resources, had attended the cuisine course with his wife while his son went for a baking course.

Mr Teo also said the head of the civil service had written to Mr Tan to 'put the matter on record'.

When contacted, the Public Service Division (PSD) declined to confirm if this was tantamount to a warning letter.

The Jan 6 article in The Straits Times Life! section, headlined Cooking Up The Holiday Spirit, drew criticisms from Singaporeans who felt it showed a lack of empathy for the working man.

Tackling the issue in Parliament, Mr Teo said what Mr Tan did during his vacation leave was 'his private decision'.

'However, I was disappointed with what he wrote in The Straits Times,' said Mr Teo. 'The article showed a lack of sensitivity and was ill-judged.'

The minister was replying to Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong, who had asked whether the public service had guidelines to ensure civil servants conducted themselves 'appropriately and sensitively'.

Mr Siew noted that Mr Tan had the prerogative to spend his money as he saw fit. 'But in these times, writing about it in the national newspaper was unnecessarily provocative and unimaginably insensitive,' he said.

Mr Teo agreed.

The article 'struck a discordant note during the current difficult economic circumstances when it is especially important to show solidarity and empathy for Singaporeans who are facing uncertainties and hardship', he said.

He added that civil service head Peter Ho had spoken to Mr Tan 'to make these points and asked Mr Tan to take note of the feedback and learn from this episode'.

In a statement yesterday, Mr Ho said it was 'part of the duty of civil servants to be sensitive to challenges faced by Singaporeans, especially in difficult times like these'.

As leaders, permanent secretaries must exemplify this sensitivity. This is 'vital for the Government to be able to formulate and implement policies effectively'. He added: 'So Mr Tan's comments were clearly ill-judged and were quite inappropriate.'

Mr Ho also said that he and his colleagues 'feel very bad about this episode, because it stands in contrast to the values and ethos of the service'.

It is a setback for the service but it is also 'a reminder of what our duty is, and where our duty lies - to do better for Singapore and for Singaporeans'.

He reminded civil servants that 'we should always conduct ourselves with decorum and humility. Everything takes its marking from this'.

Airport LabuLabi's turf war? - Amok vs Tony

Khazanah boss Azman Mokhtar, called Amok by his friends, has came out openly to oppose the plan by AirAsia to build a new airport in Labu, Negeri Sembilan.
Khazanah owns national carrier Malaysia Airlines and airport operator Malaysian Airports Bhd, both of which would be hurt bad by a rival airport close by, in a small country called Bolehland.

Personally, I oppose the idea too, and here, here and here are the reasons. Reasons given by KLIA mastermind Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

As the controversy develops, we can now see that the real reason why Tony Fernandes wants to build his own (apart from talk of Sime Darby wanting a property play on its land in Labu) is because he cannot get respect from MAB.
He wants to control MAB and how a budget terminal within KLIA is run, MAB said Fly a Kite, you are a small airline.
Tony is big-headed, MAB is large-headed. Baguslah, kasi negeri hancur instead of sitting down and resolving the issue.
Tony has strong cable (I don't have to mention names, surely). He could run all the way to PM Abdullah Badawi to get the issue resolved, but he chose to plan a new airport instead.

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KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 19 (Bernama) -- Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the government's investment holding arm, is not supportive of the plan to build a permanent low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT) in Labu, its managing director Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar said Monday.

He said the National Airport Masterplan should be used as a reference on what should be built for the sake of the country's development.

"Under the masterplan, 10,000 hectares have already been set aside, of which only about a third has been used," he told reporters after presenting Khazanah's annual review here.
He was asked to state Khazanah's stand over the issue.

According to Azman, the airport sector is one where the clustering or network effect is important.
"We cannot have a few airports here and there because then you cannot get the connectivity," he said.
Describing it as a national issue, Azman said: "Certainly we should follow through".

"We have the masterplan and we should go back to that. I am sure that AirAsia and Malaysia Airports can sit down and resolve (the matter) for the country's benefit," he said.
When building the airport, they should have software and hardware connectivity to enable seamless travel, Azman said.

"We are shareholders of Malaysia Airlines, we always maintain that both MAS and AirAsia can co-exist so that everybody can benefit," he said.

"In short, we do not support the Labu project. We should stick to the National Airport Masterplan as a lot of resources had been put in," he added.

-------------------------------------------------------
The Straits Times, Singapore. Jan 20, 2009.

Turbulence hits AirAsia's airport plan

By Leslie Lopez
South-east Asia Correspondent

KUALA LUMPUR: - The controversy over a plan by budget airline AirAsia to build its own airport is exposing a major problem that ails corporate Malaysia - how the dominance of state-controlled agencies often stifles entrepreneurship.

The wrangling also highlights the government's inability to rein in poor- performing public enterprises and pursue policies to maximise the use of resources, economists and bankers say.

Unless the government moves quickly to resolve the public feuding between state-controlled airport operator Malaysia Airports Bhd (MAB) and AirAsia, it could undermine the country's tourism sector.

'Especially in these times of crisis, the issue is how well does the country maximise its resources. Building a new airport to resolve this squabble isn't the solution,' said a CEO of a local stockbroking firm.

AirAsia, one of Malaysia's more successful private entities, says the current low-cost terminal located near the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) in Sepang would not be able to cope with passenger and fleet growth by 2013.

AirAsia's aggressive chief executive Tony Fernandes predicts that the airline will handle 60 million passengers in four years' time and have a fleet of 184 aircraft.

He also says that MAB's plans to expand its facilities in KLIA will not be completed in time.

Since it would not have any say in the new facilities that MAB intends to build, AirAsia fears that landing and other charges could rise. It thus announced a plan to build its own airport to keep expenses low.

Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's Cabinet had given AirAsia the green light for this new airport at Labu in Negeri Sembilan, roughly 8km away from KLIA. But that is just part of the story.

AirAsia had tried to negotiate a better deal with MAB, but why the latter did not try hard enough to keep its major customer happy remains a mystery. There are suggestions that the problem may be with MAB's main shareholder, government investment fund Khazanah Holdings. AirAsia's rapid growth has partly come at the expense of national carrier Malaysia Airlines, in which Khazanah holds a majority interest.

In recent weeks, Khazanah officials have lobbied senior Finance Ministry officials to get the government to review its decision on the Negeri Sembilan airport.

But this has received mixed reactions.

While proponents of Khazanah say that it is merely protecting its investments in MAB and Malaysia Airlines, others believe the investment agency is crowding out private enterprise. Khazanah dominates the national economy with controlling stakes in dozens of companies, such as transportation, medical services, finance, property and utilities.

Economists have long argued that this domination has led to inefficiency in policymaking, which is often skewed in favour of government-linked entities.

The turf war aside, there are strong arguments against a new airport. Detractors of the proposal say the KLIA was purpose- built to allow for another three satellite terminals. A new airport would also mean additional expenditure for transport infrastructure and duplication of resources.

What Datuk Seri Abdullah's administration ought to do is to play the role of referee effectively, analysts say.

If the government is of the view that a new airport would be a waste of resources, it should get MAB to negotiate with AirAsia, even if it means giving the latter wide autonomy to operate within KLIA. Under such an arrangement, the government would be able to protect its investment in the airport operator and at the same time allow AirAsia to grow profitably.

K.Terengganu polls - Two-party system next?

If you go to 10,000 so-po blogs today, you will find 10,000 analysis on the results of KT.
99 per cent of them say the end of Umno and BN as we know it, is nigh (ini cakap orang atas = 'near' lah).
People are fed up with money politics, corruption, ketuanan Melayu, high-handed ways, yak yak yak.
So here is another analysis.

If all these are true (, if,) and based on what happened in Japan, Taiwan, India and Indonesia, etc, there is NOTHING Umno and BN can do.
Japan's LDP, Taiwan's Kuomintang, India's Congress and Indonesia's Golkar just slid lower and lower, leading the country to a TWO-PARTY SYSTEM.

This means that whatever Umno-BN do from now to the next general elections in 2013 (or earlier), they won't be able to reverse the direction of electoral loss.
This is happenoing for one reason only, really.
PEOPLE WANT CHANGE.

In simple terms, after 51 years of Umno-BN many voters think that they should change the system and see whether things will be better.
"We know how these guys performed. They're not so good anymore. So let's see whether the other guys can do better. If they're no good, we just change back".

As I said here, if Umno could not win against its Malay nemesis PAS in a rural Malay heartland fight, the end is nigh.
Can you imagine how Umno would do in really mixed urban areas today such as Bandar Tun Razak or Subang?

If that is true (, if,) then Umno has no hope in hell to win the next general elections.
But what they could do is to rebound after that - you can see that happening in Indonesia and India, for example. Golkar and Congress fell, then rebounded.
But they were never the same again in terms of Power and Prestige.
No more absolute power for Umno - even now you could see that happening. We have all started comparing what BN does and what is announced in the five Pakatan Rakyat states.

For the corrupt in Umno-BN and the greedy ones that is a disaster.
For the rakyat, having a two-party system is not so bad.

Look again at the 10,000 analysis.
You will find that few, if any, have anything solid to say about HOW Umno-BN could get out of this rut and become a Power Centre again.
This is because, really, we don't think they could change much at all.
Umno needs its Azalina moment - see middle of this article.
Can these Umno leaders ever change? Listen seriously to people? Stopped sleeping?
Nope, nope and never.

Parti keramat Melayu is dying.
Sad.

Airport LabuLabi - Dr M replies to Tony

Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the mastermind behind the KLIA - and many other wonders of Malaysia, whether you look at them positively or not - gives his replies to arguments put up by AirAsia supremo Tony Fernandes in chedet.cc.

Dr M calls it "Labu Airport", not AirAsia's misleading The People's Terminal.
I mean, which "people" voted for it? The issue was not even debated in Parliament.
Airport LabuLabi (my name for it) surely cannot be just a terminal when it is proposed to have runways.

I said here that Transport Minister Ong Tee Keat seemed to indicate that he was bypassed in the process of having a second major airport for KL-ang Valley, and The Malay Mail quoted a source as saying the country already is short of air traffic controllers.

And no, arguing against this half-Sime Darby airport does not mean trying to kill off AirAsia, as moronically argued by yet another unbylined article in The Malaysian Insider (one of my fav news website too!).
If you see the angry replies below the article called Crabby Malaysians and AirAsia, you know that many people are unhappy with this plan to have two major airports side-by-side, and they gave strong arguments.

I took AirAsia flight from KL to Singapore just now (Sunday), my usual route when going back south to work, after seeing my family in KL.
I normally take the Aeroline bus north, because I simply cannot afford to take flights both ways PLUS the airport-taxi charges...
I am NOT anti-AirAsia, but I am against its plan which I think was not debated properly and could be dangerous to passengers, and injurous to the reputation of KLIA and Malaysia.

If Airport LabuLabi comes up, I bet you I won't dare to take any flight linked to it or to KLIA for six months or more.
I bet you there will be at least one major mishap by then - we just cannot have two control towers quite literally side-by-side.
As Dr M argues:

3. The comparison with Dubai and Jackson Atlanta International Airport is misleading.

4. The picture [in AirAsia's presentation] shows four runways (no indication which airport). Multiple runways is common but they are operated by one airport with one control tower. The picture and the layout does not suggest separate towers for different runways. You cannot have multiple runways close to each other but controlled by different towers.

5. Perhaps Air Asia can show documents that separations between different airport runways of 2km are permissible. Is there any example of two major airports operating separately but located 2km from each other? I don't know. Please enlighten me.

K.Terengganu polls - Wan Farid's career ends?

So what will happen to the political career of Wan Farid, the candidate who lost?
He is still a division chief in Umno Terengganu.
He was a political secretary to Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi.
Then he was appointed a Senator to become Deputy Home Minister.
And then he was picked as candidate for KT.
And a few days later he was reappointed as Senator.
Now he has lost.

How?
Can he, should he, continue as Deputy Home Minister?

K.Terengganu - Ku Li's Analysis

KT has a 88 per cent Malay majority.
And the state led by a BN-Umno government, meaning it has home-ground advantage.
The Terengganu government has a lot of oil money to throw into the campaign.
The federal government threw in its weight too, including use of mainstream media.
The battle for the by-election was led by the Deputy PM.
The PM campaigned there twice, to cool infighting.

The son-in-law of the PM camped there throughout the campaign.

And yet, the result was worse than in March last year, when BN-Umno (the late Razali Ismail) won by 628 votes.

An early indication on polling day that the ruling coalition would lose was the disappearance of many BN-Umno canvassers (perayu undi) at the 143 voting stations, that I blogged about. It meant they knew they would lose, so why bother wasting one more day at the seaside town. Belah lah, balik KL-ang Valley.

In the end, BN-Umno lost by 2,631 votes, because many more MALAYS voted for PAS.
Data showed that the Chinese mostly remained with BN (although PAS won in DUN Bandar, it was mostly because of the Malay swing to the opposition).

I gave my reasons last Thursday why I thought the opposition would win.

Tengku Razaleigh's verdict:

UMNO has lost by a large majority in a 90% Malay constituency. We lost because of Malay votes in a state whose government we control. We threw the national resources of a party in Federal power at this election, and still we lost.

Actually this was more than a referendum on the leadership. It was a test of the relevance of UMNO in its present form. If UMNO is no longer relevant to the Malays, the BN formula is dead.

The rest (incl the Bahasa version) can be read here.

If I want to be positive, I say let's get on to the Pensiangan by-election in Sabah, then.
Psst, Umno's and PAS's, DAP's and PKR's Malaya-style racial-religious politics won't work here, if you look at the Malaysiakini's map and data above on the type of voters there.
It won't be hudud or ketuanan Melayu, but more likely the high cost of living and slow development, that should be the main concerns.

K. Terengganu - PAS wins by 2,631 majority

PAS 32,883
BN-Umno 30,252
Indy 193

Majority 2,631

- Official tally.




As I have posted before, this KT Parliament seat has ding-donged between BN and PAS for a long time.

1986 - BN won, by majority of 3,324 votes.

1990 - PAS ally Semangat 46 won, by 1,880 votes.

1995 - BN won, by 4,852.

1999 - PAS won, by 14,488.

March 2004 - BN won, by 1,933.

March 2008 - BN won, by 628 votes. There was one indy candidate.

January 2009 - PAS won, by 2,631 votes, There was one indy candidate.


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UPDATE 10.35PM
--------------------

I append here the comments from 'Abdullah' which you could also read if you click on the Comments below.
I said with KT, BN has lost 2-0 because it also lost in Permatang Pauh. Abdullah begs to differ.
Very interesting insights. And a scary time indeed for BN and Umno.

Abdullah said...

You said 2-0. I differ to beg. It is 4-0.

First Match 08.

Second was Permatang Pauh

Third was Kulim which Umno withdrew its petition after it became clear that Umno had no chance of retaking the seat from PKR/Pakatan though the petition would have been won by Umno. Talk of a party that brags to be the SOLE champion of Malays but fears to face others in Malay heartland.

And now the 4th consecutive defeat in Malay heartland. Remember, Terengganu is ruled by Umno with 2/3 majority and Umno spent millions on daily basis to "touch" every voter. The people took the money, the projects and all but voted for Pakatan.

Analysis:

It means Pakatan is a viable coalition.

It means Anwar Ibrahim is still a Malay leader respected by Malay heartland despite Umno's numerous attempts to portary otherwise.

It means DAP and PAS are coming closer despite Karpal's outbursts. Pliz note that he is being sidelined by DAP Chinese leaders. Whenever he attacked Hudud, prominent DAP leaders flew to KT to campaign for Pas. They were rebuffing him in a diplomatic way.

It means that Pas Tgnu will realise the need for a better Pakatan. Had it not being Pakatan's campaign, Pas would have failed as a party. PKR and DAP worked tirelessly for Pas.

It means Umno's claim to be the sole Malay champion is non-exsistent. Malay heartland is revolting against Umno, even in states it has 2/3 majority.

It means more unity for Pakatan and more disunity for BN

It means spinning can't work with the people. They have crossed the Rubicon.

It means Umno is staring at a defeat in a general election be it now or in the future.

It means Najib's credibility is at stake. He can't afford to lose evry time with a bigger margin and claim leadership on a silver platter.

It means Anwar's rise is unstoppable for now.

It means Anwar's supremacy in Pakatan confirmed. The Tganu faction too realises the need to have him around as he mobilised his supporters (non-Pas) and DAP to campaign. They realise the futility of parochial politics and too much conservatism.

It means Badawi's legacy is non-exsistent.

It means Hudud will no longer work as an albatross (weapon) to be used against the Chinese and Indians.

It means the total death of BN component parties.

K. Terengganu - PAS wins, now for Pensiangan!

The exact margins are yet to come in yet, but PAS is sure to win, people there said and according to news websites.
As I had, ahem, said last Thursday here.

This result means many things for many people. I had said these were the things to watch out for.
PAS VP Husam Musa said PAS won in DUN Bandar, the DUN with the most Chinese voters.

The implication for this is HUGE: does it mean orang China dah tak takut isu hudud?
Hudud has for a very long time been used to momokkan PAS.
Mampoi if Umno cannot use this to attack PAS anymore.

Also, does it mean that Chinese are still hurt by idiots like Umno's Penang Datuk Ahmad Ismail and ketuanan Melayu.
So how? Will Malays now lose political power because if they use this ketuanan issue, Chinese and Indians will run away. If they don't Umno supporters will run away.
Will ketuanan Melayu be replaced with ketuanan China, disguised as Malaysian Malaysia?

What will now happen to Wan Ahmad Farid? Will he continue as Deputy Home Minister using his Senatorship? Erkks, shy.



The loss in KT also means that BN has now lost 2-0 in by-elections, the other one being in Permatang Pauh.
After BN's huge win in the March 2004 general elections, it went on to win all five by-elections. A clean sweep of 5-0.

In football, if you are trailing by 2-0, that is not that bad. You can still catch up.
So the looming by-election in remote Pensiangan, Sabah (a Parliament seat), will be even more crucial for BN.
Lose 3-0 in football, and most people will say your team is dead.
So BN must win the next one!

Also, a loss in Sabah will be widely read (rightly or wrongly) as a swing-away from BN of Borneo Malaysian voters. Anwar Ibrahim is already knocking on Sarawak doors.

K.Terengganu - "PAS takes two DUNS"

Someone just called me to say that PAS was apparently leading in the count in two of the four DUNs (state assembly seats) under Kuala Terengganu.
Remember that three of the four DUNs were won by PAS in the March 2008 general elections. Only one state constituency, Bandar - which is Chinese-dominated downtown KT - was won by BN, an MCA candidate.

Blogger penarikbeca got details and pictures (PAS only lah) here of the big number of voters who had checked their names at the pondok-pondok panas set up by PAS.
He said there was even a couple of Chinese KT voters who work in Singapore who went to check their names at the PAS pondok panas, and that this had never happened before.
Wow.
PAS said to be leading by 1,000 plus votes.

K.Terengganu - PAS wins 'perang bendera'?

I am NOT there in KT.
But friends told me that at many of the 143 polling booths, the number of PAS canvassers and those who waved the flags were many more than those from Umno-BN.

A friend who reached there from KL, in a four-wheel drive with others, this morning said: "PAS dah menang perang kibar bendera. BN tak nampak." That was his first impression. He is not a reporter and this was his first time setting foot in KT in years.
One suggestion, from a reporter there, was that the Umno-BN guys took their allowances for this work but then left the town because they expect to lose.

Let's just say this is a wrong interpretation.
It still does not explain why Umno-BN canvassers who often stay the ground until voting is over, should have given ground early. Or didn't even bother to turn up.

What gives?
Jangan belah, 'bang, nanti kalah dua-kosong - see here for my prediction last Thursday that BN will lose. And the implications of a loss.

Analyst Ong Kian Ming, who is based in the US doing his studies but who based his predictions mostly on statistics of voters, say PAS will win by 7,000 votes. He based it on a swing of Malay voters to PAS, plus a smaller swing among Chinese.

Now a friend of mine SMS'ed that someone in Umno-BN said it can win by 800.

Interesting.

Ku Li has scary story on economy

UPDATE 5.40PM
------------------

TRH has new blogsite here:
http://tengkurazaleigh.wordpress.com/


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Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, TRH, has a scary story to tell.
He gave some sharp pointers to a sleepy Malaysian government on the way out of its current malaise, in a speech last week at an ASLI conference.

As a former financial-economic reporter, I can tell you that those faltering numbers could kill the economic miracle called Malaysia. I am very worried.
- Balance of payments went into deficit, the only economy in East Asia whose expat population decreased (those in Singapore jumped a lot, I can tell you that), and over-dependence on cheap foreign labour.

The powers-that-be better wake up and wake up fast.

Full text here in anotherbrickinwall.

- Let us just begin by acknowledging that we will not be spared the effects of the global economic crisis. Our leaders only undermine the government’s credibility when they paint an alternative reality for us. I understand we don’t want to frighten markets and voters unnecessarily, but we do not live in an information bubble.

- The Government and Bank Negara maintain that our growth rate this year will be 3.5%. I fear it could be well under that. The latest numbers show a plunge in industrial activity, with manufacturing output in November, down 9.4 percent from a year ago. December may well be worse. Exports are down. There has been a dramatic swing in the balance of payments to a RM31 billion deficit in the third quarter, from a surplus of RM26 billion in the second.

- Three and a half percent growth, even if we achieve it, will not create enough jobs to employ the large number who enter the workforce each year from our young population. Our baseline do-nothing growth figure is not 0% but closer to 4%.

- We are in the infamous "middle income trap". No longer cheap enough to compete with low cost producers and not advanced enough to compete with more innovative ones, we find ourselves squeezed in between with no economic story.

- According to the World Bank, Malaysia’s share of GDP contributed by services was 46.2% in 1987. How much did you think it was twenty years later in 2007? 46.4%.

- How much do you think the real wages of our workers grew between 1994 and 2007? By 2.6% in the domestic sector and by 2.8% in the export sector.

- Unskilled migrant workers, documented and undocumented, make up 30-40% of our workforce. Meanwhile, alone in East Asia, the number of expatriate professionals here has decreased.

Where next

- In the medium term we need to make a developmental leap. But a leap is not a straight-line projection of the present. It is not about doing more of what we have done. We are not going to get there putting up more highways, declaring more Growth Corridors or planting more oil palm.

- So we must think carefully about what we spend the “fiscal stimulus” on. There is no such thing as a free lunch. We will be going into deficit to finance this stimulus, so it can’t be about just spreading money around.

- We don’t need another stimulus “package” of spending here and there. What we need, and what the crisis gives us a chance to implement, is a set of bold projects with an economic story behind them to help Malaysia make the developmental leap we have been missing.

Let me suggest two programmes and an enabling set of reforms.

Oil and Gas Centre

27. Oil and Gas has served us well, but we have still not tapped our strategic strength in this sector despite our unmatched natural and strategic advantages:

a) Malaysia is the leading Oil and Gas producer in the region. Our proven reserves have been augmented by major discoveries in recent years.

b) More than half the world’s annual merchant fleet tonnage passes through the Straits of Malacca, with most of it continuing into the South China Sea. Oil flows through the Straits of Malacca are three times greater than that through the Suez Canal and fifteen times greater than flow through the Panama Canal.

c) We have in Petronas one of the leading oil companies in the world.

d) We have strong trade links to Middle Eastern oil producers.

- We could do much better. Consider that despite having no oil resources, Singapore is among the top three global players in trading, refining and manufacture of oil and gas equipment.

- Three years ago, while Malaysia still held the OIC chairmanship, I proposed a National Strategic Plan with the vision of developing Malaysia into Asia’s Oil and Gas centre, with leading capabilities in refining, shipping, distribution, storage and downstream production.

- Given our very special geographic and strategic advantages, we should build the first spot and futures Exchange for Oil and Gas in an OIC nation.


Housing

- Let’s start a programme to bring home ownership to the whole country. The construction sector creates multiplier effects in more than a hundred other industries. It provides work in everything from insurance to advertising to materials supply.

- Housing builds powerful social capital and gives substance to citizenship. A national housing project allows us to design entire communities and townships.

- Let’s commit ourselves to having each and every Malaysian family own their own home. This vision is a radical challenge to the nation to do better. It will require the setting up of a statutory board to oversee housing development, administration and management.

- Financing for this investment could come from modifications to EPF, with matched contributions from the government towards the value of the property. Because it comes out of savings, this spending would be non-inflationary.

Public sector reform

- We cannot wait till the crisis blows over to tackle the public delivery system head on. This is because we will need an upgraded public service just to implement such large public programmes successfully.

- Similarly, the two programmes I have suggested would come to nought if they were derailed by the corrupt practices that have become the norm in this country. As part of the project management of these programmes we should set up powerful, independent divisions devoted to investigating complaints of fraud.


CONCLUSION

- What I have outlined this afternoon are just my suggestions. I am sure there are many other ideas in this distinguished company.

- Let me end where I began, with the question of confidence.

- We need to restore confidence in our basic institutions, our leadership, the integrity of the Federation, the rule of law and our national Constitution. This is of a piece with the vital economic confidence needed to unleash credit, investment and consumption, and get everyone working. We need to restore confidence in Malaysia.

- The country can no longer afford a political class out of touch with reality that trades on yesterday’s political insecurities and a government that has forgotten its purpose. We need a renewal of leadership as a first step to restoring true confidence.

Blurring the Truth - Pakatan & Toyota Camrys

Sure, let us buy the argument that maintaining a Proton Perdana is expensive.
Let us also accept that it is a crap car that poor mats, ahcheongs and muthus drive to pretend they have reached up there.
That's what both BN and Pakatan Rakyat politicians want us to believe.

It still begs the question why the Pakatan governments of Perak, and now Selangor, must take delivery of these luxury Camry cars.
A case was being made in Siasah, a pro-opposition news site, that Camrys are NOT luxo cars. It was trying to justify the purchases of these cars by the two state governments.
The report said that Mercs qualify as luxo cars, but not a Camry. Bullshit.

Let us look the prices of these cars versus the prices of a home in KL-ang Valley then.
A 2.0 litre Camry according to the Toyota Malaysia website costs RM142,000 each to a regular buyer.
A 2.4 litre one, the ones bought by the Pakatan governments, costs about RM172,000 each.
Of course, for bulk purchases you get discounts.
(Same if you buy a few Perdanas, surely).

The price of a medium-cost flat in Keramat (at the area where I live in KL) is about that price. If you talk about condos or terrace houses, they would be higher.

This means that to most salarymen and salarywomen, the Camry is indeed a luxo car, simply because they could choose to buy a flat or Camry. Not both.
I don't know about people in Shah Alam, the capital of Selangor, or in Ipoh, Perak, but in my area you only find Camrys (along with other high-end makes) in front of terrace houses, semi-dees and bungalows. Or parked below pricey condos.

So the Pakatan governments which bought these cars and pretended they were ONLY for practical reasons, like to save money for the rakyat, are lying to themselves.
Let us not delude ourselves. These cars were bought for PRESTIGE reasons too, not because of their so-called low maintenance only.
And since taxpayers are paying for these, why not buy them, eh?
If these excos have to buy them using their own money, I venture that most of them (apart from rich man Khalid Ibrahim) will quickly line up to buy cheaper models like Toyota Vios or Honda City.

They have all pointed to the BN Terengganu state government for buying E-Class Mercs which surely cost at least RM400,000 each.
Sure, those guys are wasteful idiots, but you are supposed to be a government of the rakyat.

Well, the Pakatan chiefs said they want low-maintenance cars, yet big ones so as not to embarrass themselves when bringing in foreign investors (how often do these people come by, really. And if they do, you mean you cannot hire Mercs for the occasion, if you must?).

If so, why not buy a Toyota Altis 1.8litre - the new model is much bigger than the previous model.
And the price is RM119,000.
Right away you save RM23,000-RM53,000 for the rakyat for each Altis purchased instead of a Camry!

An aide to a Pakatan politician said it would be "weird" for their bosses to be driven around in a smaller car. Exactly my point.
You guys want the prestige of being seen in a big car, instead of showing the rakyat that you are willing to change the game.
You want the rakyat to believe that you are saving money for them, when you could easily save more!
They have forgotten that only 10 months ago, most of them cannot afford to buy a proper car because as opposition politicians, they do not have proper salaried jobs....

But why stop at the Altis?
Why not buy a bigger vehicle that can pack six politicians (minus the driver) and yet not having to resort to buying, ahem, "low-enders" such as Naza Ria?

I am talking about the Toyota Innova, a seven-seater.
Convenient for you guys to go meetings "together-gether", kata orang Melayu.
Mesra alam lagi, you. Since you arrive in one car, not six.
Innova's price? About RM112,000, again big savings compared to a Camry.

I do not want to go into discussing buying Nissan Livinas and Honda Civics, but the argument is the same.
There are cheaper alternatives out there, but the newly-minted YBs of Pakatan decided to go for prestige but pretended they are saving money for the rakyat.
Shame on you.

K.Terengganu - BN will lose, readings show

Latest ground readings from tea leaves, chicken entrails and crystal balls indicate that Umno-BN will indeed lose in Kuala Terengganu.
It won by 628 votes in the March general elections. It is set to lose by more votes than this.
Aiyo tak tau, aiyo tak tau.

A loss on Jan 17 (this Saturday) will be a big blow for incoming premier Najib Razak, Umno, MCA, Barisan Nasional, and even for the tattered legacy of Abdullah Badawi.

- For Badawi it will show that he should have left the scene BEFORE the March elections. Now his failures have snowballed into defeat after defeat for once-mighty machines called Umno and BN.
- For Najib it will show that he has a lot of work to do to win them back. He had dished out contracts for Terengganu Malay contractors (aka approved money politics) last week, but still cannot bring in the votes.
- For the biggest political party in the land, Umno, a loss is disastrous because it shows it cannot even win in a Malay majority area. A rural Malay majority area is where it derives its power from. It had lost in Kelantan, Kedah and now is weakened in Terengganu; that would be the general impression.
- For the biggest Malaysian Chinese political party, MCA, it would mean the 11 per cent Chinese voters in KT did not respect it as the should (the readings indicate that the KT Chinese are set to abandon BN in this by-election).

Of course, these things have yet to come to pass.

A loss would show that 10 months after the March general elections, the government coalition is still fighting from the trenches. Fighting for its survival.
Leave alone attacking the enemy and Anwar Ibrahim in their fortress.

In 1998-2000, in the aftermath of the sacking of Anwar Ibrahim and the birth of Reformasi, then Umno leader Mahathir Mohamad struggled for years to get the Malays back.
The spark for this was presented by a then new player, Azalina Othman Said (these days swamped by scandals), who managed to persuade thousands of young Malay women to join Umno. They brought back in their family members, including the men.
This was also against the background of an improving economy that Mahathir pump-primed. A sweeter economy brought back, slowly but surely, the Umno warlords and the Chinese MCA-type businessmen.


Today, these are among issues that would lead to the loss of KT to PAS (in no particular order of merit) on Saturday:

a) Continued Umno infighting. Former menteri besar Idris Jusoh and friends would not want new MB Ahmad Said to be able to claim it was him that led Umno-BN to sucessfully defend the seat.

b) Candidate Wan Ahmad Farid is not exactly enemy-less in Terengganu. His brother was involved in the Monsoon Cup and there are enough jealousies on this. Some local Umno chieftains wanted other candidates.
These guys would rather see Umno lose than to see a candidate NOT of their choice won. Stupid, yes, but this is Umno for you these days. Sad.
They forgot to realise that if they continue to weaken themselves, the gold and lucre that they always fight for will slip further and further away from their hands.

c) The Lunar New Year is round the corner. It means the outstation voters (Chinese and Malays) were expected to return home this Saturday (Jan 17) to vote, and then go back to Klang Valley, Penang, etc.
Only to have to come back a few days later for the long weekend - they could drive home late on Friday (Jan 23) and be with their families on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and drive back to their offices-shops-factories on Tuesday (Jan 27).
Unless they are willing to pay for the extra flights, bus trips and drive backs this Saturday.

(Umno-BN had better be careful from sponsoring these outstation voters to come back. In March, as part of a plan to retake Kelantan, Umno paid for dozens of buses to come to Kota Baru. (The problem is, once they were home the Kelantanese voted for PAS!
(How else do you explain the fact that Umno-BN nearly got totally wiped out at Parliament and State-Assembly levels?)

d) In their eagerness to kill PAS, Umno and MCA have been playing the hudud issue. Is that the real concern of voters? Isn't inflation, the high cost of living for rural folks, the real issue? What has the government been seen to be doing?
Just saying the oil royalty monies are now being paid to Terengganu is not enough. Everyone is still waiting to know what happened to the billions paid out in years gone by.
Terengganu remains one of the poorest states in Malaysia, according to official data.
Despite the billions of oil money, it is poorer than Kelantan, which has been led by a penniless PAS for 18years! Apahal?

e) Which brings me to the issue of wastage. They are called the Crystal Mosque (part of the Taman Tamadun Islam, a Badawi-bodek-project by Idris Jusoh) and the Monsoon Cup. What trickle down effects have these projects on the local populace?

So,
- What bullets does Najib have to bring these people back to support Umno-BN blindly again?
- What can the MCA do to bring back the Chinese (apart from playing the role of Chinese champion by stupidly attacking its own partner Umno on issues such as ketuanan Melayu, instead of attacking the opposition)?
- What can Umno do to convince the non-Malay voters that it should still lead the ruling coalition, while guaranteeing the rights of Chinese, Indians and others?
- What economic/stimulus plans could be pulled out of the hat by the government to make everyone happy again?
Don't ask me. I am just a lowly journalist and blogger-wanna-be.


And just as importantly, a loss for Umno-BN means a victory for PAS-Pakatan.
After the huge Badawi victory at the March 2004 (yes, 2004) general elections, BN subsequently won in *FIVE by-elections, the Opposition drew NIL.

A loss by Umno-BN in KT would mean BN NIL, Pakatan 2 (the other one being Permatang Pauh).
Aiyo tak tau, aiyo tak tau.

(*The five by-e were Kuala Berang in 2004, Pengkalan Pasir 2005, Batu Talam 2007, Ijok 2007 and Machap 2007).