Betul ke ni? PAS masih nak berbaik dgn Umno

Betul ke ni?
PAS masih nak berbaik dgn Umno Betul ke ni?
Saya bertanyakan dua member dari puak PAS tentang desas-desus yang saya dengar, dan mereka mengatakan tidak mustahil jika parti Islam ini masih terus mengadakan perbincangan secara sulit dengan Umno demi menyatukan umat Islam dan Melayu.

Salah seorang dari mereka menyatakan ini tidak salah, sebab PAS dalam muktamar tahun lalu di Ipoh (yang saya hadiri) telah bersetuju memberi jalan kepada pemimpin untuk terus mengadakan muzakarah dan muqabalah dengan Umno (atau mana pihak pun, demi umat Islam).
Tetapi dia juga mengingatkan bahawa PAS juga tahu bahawa "mood" rakyat kini mirip kepada Pakatan Rakyat, dan oleh itu tidak apa-apa akan berlaku.
Maknanya, PAS akan hilang kredibiliti jika tiba-tiba lompat masuk BN.

Lagipun, sebagai parti yang mempunyai ideologi kuat, isu sebesar ini akan dibawa kepada muktamar atau pun perhimpunan tergempar.
Takkan lah suka-suka beberapa orang pemimpin nak buat kenyataan bahawa parti itu kini dah besamamu BN.

Yang seorang member lagi berkata Perdana Menteri baru ada "task force" (jawatankuasa bertindak) untuk meneruskan perbincangan tentang penyatuan Melayu ni dengan PAS. Ooi dasyat tu. Kalau benarlah.
Menurut ceritanya, walaupun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, Tun, dah turun, tetapi isu ini masih terus dimajukan oleh Tok Guru Hadi Awang (TGHA).

Dan yang lebih menarik - dan mengundang spekulasi orang luar seperti saya (bukan ahli PAS atau parti lain) - ialah tulisan blog anak Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat (TGNA).
Beliau menyatakan setelah mengadakan perjumpaan dengan para ulama PAS beberapa bulan lalu, MB Kelatan kini dah tak "menyerang" idea Unity Government ini.

Tulisan Nik Abduh:
"Justeru fahami ini bahawa ‘Unity Government’ yang ditolak ayahanda adalah jenis kerajaan yang difahamkan kepadanya oleh pembantu - pembantu ayahanda yang berpakaian serba tahu. Mereka seronok untuk melaga -lagakan di antara TGNA dan TGHH."

Dan lagi:
"Selepas pertemuan ayahanda dengan ulama PAS di JKR 10 [kediaman rasmi Menteri Besar Kelantan] beberapa bulan lepas, ayahanda menerima muzakarah atau muqabalah selepas bermatian menolaknya."

Tapi kini, nampaknya, Tok Guru Hadi pula yang menolak idea Kerajaan Perpaduan ini - lihat wawancara Harakah di sini. Pulak!

Cerita seperti ini memang masih pada tahap spekulasi saja.
Kita lihat apa akan jadi di Stadium Malawati di Shah Alam pada June nanti apabila PAS mengadakan muktamar dan pilihanrayanya.Ada yang berkata, jika Ustaz Nasharuddin Mat Isa (pemimpin yang dikatan pro-Unity) dapat mempertahankan kedudukannya dengan menewaskan Husam Musa, maka bendera Umno dan PAS mungkin berkibar bersebelahan tidak lama lagi.

(Dari Harakah - sejarah pahit PAS dalam BN dulu - di sini).

Pendapat saya: Unity Government ni tak akan jadi sebab PAS tahu parti sejuta ahli ini akan berpecah dua dan penyokongnya dari bukan Islam pun lari.
Jadi kenapa saya tulis cerita ni? Kerana ada desas-desus baru nampaknya dan juga mengambil-kira tulisan Nik Abduh.
Tetapi, cerita ini mungkin juga mainan orang politik menjelang muktamar PAS....

Nipah, SARS, bird flu, swine flu - be careful

The world is readying itself for the possibility of a pandemic.
Many people were worried about bird flu, but it didn't happen. Not yet anyway.

But for Singaporeans who went through the hell of SARS and for folks in Negeri Sembilan who went through the deaths of the Nipah virus, they know exactly how people in Mexico and parts of USA and Canada feel right now.


1998 Nipah = 105 died in Malaysia.

2003 SARS = 33 died in Singapore (Worldwide 774).

2003-n0w Bird flu = 115 Indonesia, Thailand 17 (Worldwide 257).

2009 Swine flu - Tidak akan datang (Our joint prayers/Doa kita bersama).

1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times - infecting up to 40 people of the world's population and killing more than 50 million people, with young adults particularly badly affected

1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The elderly were particularly vulnerable

1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die

'Demam babi' gegar Mexico, Amerika. Takuttttt...

Swine flu telah membunuh 68 orang di Mexico dan 1,000 yang lain mungkin telah kena.

Dan penyakit ini telah dijangkiti lapan orang di Amerika Syarikat.

Seperti penyakit SARS hanya beberapa tahun lalu, ia bermula dengan demam, sakit otot.
World Health Organisation, WHO, akan mengadakan sidang tergempar hari ini di Geneva.

Nak kurangkannya dari merebak/terkena?
- Kerap cuci tangan. Seperti SARS dulu, orang di Mexico kini dah takut nak berjabat tangan!
- Jika batuk tutuplah mulut.
- Jika rasa demam, duduk saja di rumah. Ramai rakyat Mexico kini pakai topeng mulut bila berjalan di luar.
- Jangan ke tempat di mana ramai orang berkumpul, takut jangkit. Mexico tutup semua sekolah, museum, bangunan awam.
- Jika anda baru balik dari Mexico, segera ke doktor, 'bang, kakak.

Saya harap kita tidak menuju ke masalah SARS sekali lagi. Dulu masa kena SARS ekonomi dua ok lagi, lepas tu lemah.
Kini ekonomi dunia dah lemah, jika kena swine flu lagi parah.

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TAMBAHAN 9.45MLM
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'Demam babi' mungkin merebak luas - Pertubuhan Kesihatan Antarabangsa

ASSOCIATED PRESS

GENEVA – The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and the United States could develop into a pandemic.
WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says the outbreak involves “an animal strain of the H1N1 virus, and it has pandemic potential.”
Chan says it is too early to say whether a pandemic will actually occur.
The global health body has advised countries around the world to look out for similar outbreaks following the discovery of related strains on both sides of the Mexico-U.S. border.
At least 62 people in Mexico have died from pneumonia after contracting a flu-like virus.
WHO says some tested positive for a strain that sickened at least seven in the southwestern U.S. No deaths have been reported in the U.S.

Nizar nak Hakim 9 putuskan kes. Bagus!

Saya pernah menulis di sini bahawa saya khuatir tentang apa yang berlaku di Mahkamah yang melibatkan orang politik BN dan Pakatan.
Mereka membawa isu pergolakan Perak ke Mahkamah. Maknanya mereka mahu menetapkan (settle) isu-isu yang berlaku dengan hakim dengan berasaskan undang-undang.
Yang saya khuatir ialah apabila Pakatan tewas baru-baru ini, ia telah menolak keputusan.
Setakat ini BN belum kalah, tak tahu jika dia kalah dia pun tolak keputusan.

Dan sekarang saya terbaca bahawa bekas/masih Menteri Besar Perak Nizar Jamaluddin mahukan sembilan orang hakim (baca di bawah) untuk memutuskan kesnya - selepas keputusan hakim lima orang tidak diterima Pakatan.
Adakah ini bermakna bahawa jika permintaannya diterima, tetapi lepas tu Pakatan dan beliau tewas lagi di Mahkamah, beliau akan menerima keputusan?
Isunya kali ini ialah sama ada beliau atau Zambry Kadir yang patut jadi MB.
Kalau menang, tentu Nizar terima.
Tetapi kalau tewas, bagaimana pula?
Ditolak lagi? Dan lepas tu maki-hamun hakim kerana dibeli?

Kalau gitu, kan lebih baik jangan bawa ke Mahkamah.
Setiap kali mahmakah dipolitikkan dan dihina, martabat hakim semakin dipandang rendah oleh masyarakat dan pelabur asing.
Memanglah orang kata ada hakim yang mereng, dan kerajaan kena bersihkan.
Tetapi janganlah pula dalam semua kes yang kita kalah, kita serang hakim.
Seperti yang saya pernah tulis:

Tapi adakah ini bermakna pembangkang dah tidak percaya langsung dengan mahkamah? Jika begitu, tak payahlah bawa perkara politik ni ke sana, lepas tu sokong yg dia menang saja.
Sebenarnya - ini seperti saya nak menghasut - tak susah di Malaysia ni kalau nak tunjukkan seseorang itu ‘senget’. Hantar saja ke Raja Petra sebanyak ‘bukti’ mana yg anda ada.

Yang saya khuatir ialah pembangkang menyerang mahkamah bila kalah, tapi sokong bila menang (umpamanya isu Anwar Ibrahim yang dibenarkan mahkamah itu dan ini dalam kes sodomi terbarunya, Beliau berkata mahkamah/hakim ni bagus. Bila desekat mahkamah, bagaimana pula reaksi beliau dan orang ramai.

Saya kata negeri boleh hancur sebab jika pelabur asing tak percaya mahkamah di Malaysia, susah nak ajak mereka masuk sebab kalau ada masalah, mereka takut akan kalah jika hakim dirasakan boleh dibeli.
Sekarangpun, ada negara jiran yang dilihat seperti begitu.

Dan dalam beberapa kontrak besar di Malaysia yg melibatkan pelabur asing, ada clause yg menyatakan jika ada dispute, isu mesti diselesaikan di mahkamah Singapore atau Hongkong (ni menurut rakan saya yg bekerja di syarikat peguam yg besar di KL).
Jadi bagaimana kalau mahkamah terus orang dipolitikkan? Makin rosak imej dan namanya.

Itu yg saya khuatir. Bukan niat saya nak perkecilkan perjuangan pembangkang atau kerajaan.

Gambar hiasan (tak ada kena mengena dengan kes, cuma nombornya pun sembilan: Wali Songo, sembilan wali, the nine founding saints of Islam in Java. Some of them are believed to be of Chinese descent.

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Malaysiakini

Ousted Perak menteri besar Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin has applied to the Federal Court to have an unprecedented nine-member panel, when it decides to hear Zambry Abdul Kadir's application to interpret constitutional matters on Tuesday.

MCPX

Mohd Nizar filed the application through his lawyer Leong Cheok Keng on Wednesday.

If the application is allowed, this would be the highest number of Federal Court judges to hear an application. Normally, a panel of five judges would hear a matter if it concerns constitutional matters.

At present, there are 12 Federal Court judges since the recent elevation of Justice Gopal Sri Ram, James Foong and Mohd Ghazali Mohd Yusoff to the apex court.

When contacted, Leong confirmed that the application had been filed.

He cited two main reasons namely that the case is of public interest and that Mohd Nizar has questioned the legitimacy of the apex court in hearing the application as it involves the interpretation of a state constitution and not the Federal constitution.

By-election - Nasib baik Karpal tak ditimpa tangga...

The Star

KUANTAN: Karpal Singh fell from his wheelchair when he was about to attend a High Court hearing involving Pahang Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Adnan Yaakob and logging company Seruan Gemilang Makmur Sdn Bhd here Friday.
The Bukit Gelugor member of Parliament who was also an attorney for Seruan Gemilang, was initially carried by several aides up the stairs at the court complex with him remaining in the wheelchair.
But they lost balance and Karpal was tipped onto the five-foot way.
"It's time for us to have a good system with facilities for the disabled.
“Fortunately nothing happened to me. If something had, there'd be another by-election," he told reporters after the court proceedings.

Boleh ke ni? Kabinet M'sia putuskan isu agama

Kabinet dalam mesyuaratnya minggu ini memutuskan bahawa jika seorang dari sepasangan suami isteri keluar dari agama, maka anak-anak mereka harus tetap dengan agama asalnya - kata Menteri Nazri Aziz.
Baca laporan The Star di sini.

Saya setuju secara peribadi, sebab dah banyak problem tentang isu ini. Hingga rosak nama Islam diherdik dan dihina, apa lagi kerana para hakim pula takut nak buat keputusan.

Tetapi: Maaf saya yang daif bertanya. Ini bab agama, beb, boleh ke Kabinet sesuka hati mengeluarkan 'fatwa'?

Esok jika Kabinet bersetuju semua umat Islam kena pakai songkok warna biru BN apabila keluar rumah (atau songkok hijau PAS), atau boleh minum itu dan ini, kena ikut juga ke?
Jika soalan saya kurang sopan, maaf.
Yang saya khuatir jadi kontroversi tak tentu pasal pulak, walaupun niat Kabinet itu baik.

Kenapa Perak lelong 16 Camry yg masih baru?

Apabila kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat membeli kereta-kereta mewah Camry ni, saya berang sungguh. Katanya kerajaan yang lain dari BN, tak nak membazir.

Tapi sama juga rupanya, depa gi beli. Baca di sini.

Kenapa tak beli Toyota Altis atau Toyota Innova - lebih murah dari Camry. Dan Innova boleh bawa tujuh orang sekaligus - boleh ada meeting dalam perjalanan.

Tapi apa nak buat semua nak glamour.
Tapi ini MB BN Zambry Kadir pula nak jual kereta Camry.

Ooi ooi ooi - Tengok tu! Cantik-cantiknya nombor tu..... Mohamad Nizar Jamaluddin kena beritahu rakyat nombor kereta yang cantik-cantik ni dibeli ke Toyota kasi free????
Semua 16 buah baru dipakai satu atau dua bulan saja!!! Baca BH di sini.


Yang Zambry ni apasal pula nak lelong?
Dia nak glamour dapat beli baru?
Atau mungkin, saya berdoalah ni, dia nak beli Altis atau Innova dan jimat duit rakyat???

Kalau lepas jual dia beli kereta mewah baru, maknanya sama ada BN atau PR sama-sama gila dan suka habiskan duit rakyat.

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TAMBAHAN 12 TGHMLM
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Terima kasih kepada Kluangman (baca Comments di bawah posting ini).
Rupa-rupanya Zambry nak beli Perdana baru, you.
Baguslah tu.
Tunjukkan rakyat bahawa Perdana ini kereta aok dan sekaligus menunjukkan kepada Pakatan ni tak payah lah nak gunakan kereta mewah yang mahal habiskan dukit rakyat.

Mak oi! - Gambar rumah orang kaya Malaysia

Besau.

Tak payah lah saya letak nama tycoon besau ni.

Katanya rumah terletak di Damasara Heights. Saya tinggal di Keramat-AU, jadi tak tahu betul ke tidak sebab saya tak mampu nak campur orang status setinggi ini.

Syarikatnya tersohor di Bursa Malaysia.

Pada saya bentuk rumah ni buruk habis.

Tapi citarasa masing-masing lah.

SPR Malaysia tiba-tiba nyanyi lagu PM Najib

Lagu sama, rentak sama.
Tak ada siapa yang terkejut apabila pengerusi Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya (SPR) tiba-tiba terjaga dan berkata nak kaji semula pastikan wang tidak terbazir dengan pilihanraya kecil yang tak perlu. Lunak suara beliau, sama macam lagu PM Najib Razak lagi, you.

Memang saya pun tak setuju buang-buang duit dengan pilihanraya kecil ni, tapi jika dikaji seperti apa yang diterbitkan akhbar The Star, dari RM33.4 juta yang dibelanjakan untuk lima pilihanraya kecil sejak setahun ini, RM31 juta adalah wang yang digunakan oleh polis nak jaga keselamatan. Hanya yang lebih tu dibelanjakan oleh SPR.

Banyaknya abang polis pakai..... overtime, makan, nak bawa terak dan pegawai ke sana sini, nak siapkan mereka tempat tidur. Kesian. Tapi perlu ke bawa polis ni ramai-ramai sangat ke sana sini. Di Permatang Pauh dulu, hotel penginapan saya penuh dengan abang polis - hensome-hensome dan tegap-tegap lagi.
Setahu saya, dengan pihak pembangkang ni dah rasa mereka dapat rampas kuasa tak lama lagi, dah kurang nafsu mereka nak huru-harakan Malaysia (jika itu yang dikhuatirkan dan itu yang dituduh ke arah mereka).

Tapi jika sebab sebenar lagu pujaan minggu ini sama belaka adalah sebab TAKUT KALAH, oh ok lah.
Kan baik cakap depan-depan: ini hari hang, boleh eksyen lah.
Kami surrender.
Lain kali aku debik hang pulak.
Tapi malu juga, sey. Ini kan Umno parti gedebe, apa dah jadi?
Belum lawan dah surrender?

PAS - muktamar akan perjelas halataju parti

Saya pada mulanya nak menulis mengenai muktamar PAS hanya bulan depan, sebab perhimpunan itu akan diadakan di Gombak hanya pada Jun.
Tetapi nampaknya dah banyak cerita dah keluar, kerana pada masa ini pun sedang berjalan pemilihan di bahagian-bahagian. Dan pencalonan.

Nak pendekkan cerita, kumpulan pro-Anwar atau pro-Pakatan -- atau Erdogans -- dijangka memperkuasai parti.
Dan kumpulan yang pro-Umno atau pro-Melayu - atau yang dipanggil kumpulan Terengganu - dijangka mengalami kekalahan.
Tetapi, seperti muktamar Ogos tahun lalu di Ipoh sudah tentunya akan ada suara-suara lantang yang akan mengingatkan dan menasihatkan para pemimpin supaya berhati-hati dengan Pakatan Rakyat ni dan cita-cita Anwar Ibrahim.


Betul, cerita sebenar dalam parti bukanlah hitam-putih, tapi saya hitam-putihkan juga kerana nak ringkaskan laporan - Kumpulan Terengganu akan bertembung dengan Kumpulan Erdogan.
Jika pada pertandingan jawatan PAS setiap dua tahun secara tradisinya dilihat sebagai pertandingan antara Golongan Ulama dan Golongan Profesional.
Tahun ini, labelnya dah tukar sikit.

Baca analisa Mohd Sayuti Omar di sini.
Beliau menamakan kumpulan Erdogan ni Kumpulan Profesional Liberal (Prolib).
Puak yang lagi satu dipanggilnya Kumpulan Ustaz-Ulamak (Ustaz Mat).

Presiden PAS Abdul Hadi Awang, mungkin untuk mempertahankan benteng Kumpulan Terengganunya, dilaporkan berkata beliau menarik balik tawaran untuk membincangkan kerajaan bersekutu bersama Umno-PAS.
Dia menyatakan bahawa kerana perdana menteri Malaysia dah ditukar orang baru, maka tawaran PAS itu di tarik balik.
Baca analisa Prof Hamirdin (saya nak pakai sarban macam beliau dari zaman tabligh di Singapore dulu, tapi tak tahu macam mana nak ikat!) di sini. Beliau menulis bahawa setiausaha akhbar Tok Guru Hadi, Roslan SMS, tewas di Kelana Jaya.

Untuk Kumpulan Erdogan pula, kemenangan Ir Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin dalam pilihanraya kecil Bukit Gantang digunakan sebagai bukti kenapa PAS harus bekerja dengan golongan yang terang-terang anti-Negara Islam, DAP.
Dan juga dengan kumpulan yang tidak kisah sama ada Negara Islam hidup atau tidak, PKR.
Orang Cina dan India kini dah sokong PAS sebab dah tak cakap lagi tentang (shhh, jangan cakap kuat-kuat, nanti orang lari), Negara Islam.


Nak ringkas cerita lagi, sebab semua orang pun dah tahu -

1) Presiden:
Tok Guru Abdul Hadi tidak akan dicabar.
Tetapi beliau dijangka akan lebih berhati-hati lepas itu jika nak buat statement tentang Negara Islam, hukum syariah.
Kalau saya nak serang PAS, saya katakan: Parti Islam ni dah jadi macam Umno pulak.
Tetapi penarik beca mengingatkan kita - Tok Guru Haji Hadi bukan senang sebegitu nak diperkecilkan.



2) Timbalan Presiden:
Nasharuddin Mat Isa dijangka akan dicabar oleh Husam Musa, orang kanan Nik Aziz Nik Mat, 'ketua' Erdogan.
Saya tidak pasti lagi sama ada Ustaz Nasha atau Datuk Husam akan menang. Terlalu awal nak kata.
Jika memang Nasha dicabar Husam, siapa pun yang menang akan menukar cara PAS dilihat oleh orang luar.

Jika dulu Nasha dan Husam bersatu nak bilis keluar Ustaz Hassan Sukri dari jawatan timbalan, kini mereka dua pula dijangka bertanding sengit.

Jika Nasha dapat mempertahankan kedudukannya, Husam dah tak ada jawatan. Dia kenalah dilantik ke tempat lain.
Jika Nasha menang, ini boleh dilihat sebagai warga PAS masih perlukan ketua yang dilihat sebagai ulama-dan-profesional dalam satu.
Dan maknanya, kumpulan Erdogan kalah 0-1.
Maknanya ramai warga PAS masih mahu berhati-hati masuk ke dalam Pakatan.

Jika Husam menang, Nasha pula kena mencari jawatan lain untuk dilantik.
Ia akan dilihat sebagai warga PAS halalkan pakatan dengan DAP dan PKR dengan tujuan nak jatuhkan kerajaan Umno-BN.

Pada saya: sayang sungguh jika salah seorang dari panglima PAS ni kalah dan kehilangan jawatan.

Dah saya terbaca, PAS Selayang mencalonkan Ustaz Haron Din sebagai Timbalan Presiden baru. Ah, tapi ustaz pujaan saya ni dikatakan dari golongan pro-Melayu ni. Betul ke?
Dah ada empat nama lagi - baca Siasahdaily.

3) Tiga jawatan Naib Presiden:
Sekarang jawatan disanjung oleh Husam, Mohamad Sabu dan Ahmad Awang. Hanya Ustaz Ahmad saja yang berstatus ulama.

Katanya, mereka yang akan cuba masuk slot-slot ini kali ini ialah Nizar dan Salahuddin Ayub, kini ketua Dewan Pemuda.
Dan Mat Sabu akan mempertahanan kerusinya.
Juga Ustaz Ahmad Awang.
Tetapi antara Nizar dan Ahmad, kedua-duanya dari Perak, nama Nizar kini lebih hebat.

Tapi takkanlah parti Islam akan setuju jika ketiga-tiga naib presiden bukan dari golongan ulama?
Tak 'balance' lah.




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Di Malaysia ada Erdogan, di Turki kumpulan Ergenekon

ANKARA - Police have detained at least 21 people, including a university president, over an alleged secularist conspiracy to topple the Islamic-rooted government, Turkish media rpoetred.

Police also searched the headquarters of a television station and several branches of a secularist group, the Association to Support Contemporary Life, the state-run Anatolia news agency and other reports said.

The detentions followed a series of earlier arrests ordered by prosecutors investigating an alleged organization called the Ergenekon gang. Prosecutors claim that dozens of military officers, police officers, journalists and academics belong to the group and that they plotted the coup. The name comes from a legendary ancestral homeland of the Turks.

More than 200 suspects have been detained since 2007 in the case that highlights a rift between an increasingly powerful class of pious Muslims who run the government with a strong electoral mandate, and secular elites who fear the government is seeking to impose religion on society.

The suspects are accused of seeking to create chaos in order to trigger a military takeover.

Critics say the arrests are part of the government's attempt to muzzle secular opponents. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan denies the charge and says his government upholds Turkey's secular principles.

Those detained for questioning Monday included Prof. Mehmet Haberal, the president and owner of Ankara's Baskent University and professors Fatih Hilmioglu and Ferit Bernay, the former presidents of universities in the cities of Malatya and Samsun, Anatolia reported.

Haberal had organized meetings with secularists opposed to the government, reportedly with the aim of forming a new political movement or party. Haberal also owns pro-secular Kanal B television, whose headquarters were searched Monday.

Ergenekon's alleged ringleaders include two retired generals. They face life in prison if convicted.

Fox News

Malaysia Boleh, Indonesia Bisa

The founders of the Democratic Party together with partisans have formed a campaign team called “Indonesia Bisa” or Indonesia is Able to support Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s bid for re-election as president.

"Indonesia is Able" was declared as an organisation at the Bima Room of the Bidakara Complex in Jakarta on Saturday, Antara news agency reported.

Former founder and chairman of Democratic Party Prof Subur Budhisantoso was named the leader of the new organization which was also supported by a number of figures belonging to Yudhoyono's success team in the 2004 presidential election.

In the manifesto of Indonesia Bisa, it was said that Indonesia had actually had a strong basic capital to face various challenges ahead and to realize its national goal.

The organisation in principle had a strong history and firm social footing with wider horizon so it was relevant to be made as the way of life in responding various problems of the state and nation in the community.

The vision of Indonesia Bisa is to prioritise the spirit of solidarity and to uphold all value systems in the community, and therefore it was expected to overcome the national problems of today and in the future.

Antara news agency


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Malaysia Boleh is often translated into English as Malaysia Can.

Why make so much noise after Perak is lost?

I feel kinda curious reading all these unhappiness with the verdict given on the Perak issue by the Federal Court.
The five judges decided that Speaker Sivakumar was wrong and that BN-installed Zambry Kadir and six others should not have been barred from attending the state legislature. So now many opposition supporters and even Aliran are angry.
Why?
They say it is wrong for court to interfere with this, separation of judiciary and legislature etc.

But what if the court had gone the other way and said Sivakumar was right?
That he has the right indeed to bar Zambry and gang?
Will the opposition supporters also say the same thing as they are doing now: that there must be separation between the judiciary and legislature etc?
Or will they say, as I believe they would - Right on baby! I told you so! Let's have state-wide elections! 'Bodoh punya BN, mampos Najib'.

I mean why the bloody Double Standard?
Why destroy the judicial institution just because you didn't get the judgment that you wanted?

Or are you guys saying that the court judges - all five of them, mind - have been bought over by PM Najib Razak, by Mahathir, all judges are corrupt thingy?
If so, come out and say it lah.
"We the opposition thinks that the highest court in the land, the Federal Court, has corrupt judges. We won't listen to its judgments anymore, even if it supports our cases."

You'd be surprised at what I think of the whole Perak issue - you would think that after saying all the above, I agree that BN should rule the state.
Nope, I don't.
On the other hand, i PERSONALLY think that we should indeed have Perak state-wide elections.
I PERSONALLY think the Sultan of Perak should have bubarkan DUN.
I PERSONALLY think that the Court should not have gotten involved in the matter (heck Dr M also said so): there must be separation of judiciary and state legislature.

But I am also ready to set aside my PERSONAL opinion.
And let the court and the sultan (former chief judge) settle the matter, believing in full that they know the law and are following it.
(As I said, if you don't believe the court, say so loudly NOW).

This is because I have no proof that Najib had bought the judges and/or the sultan.
Until you guys do, I suggest we shut up.
We accept the court's decision that it DOES have jurisdiction to interfere.
And now it has decided that effectively, BN wins, PR loses in Perak.
So that the next time, if the Federal Court DOES support some case brought up by the opposition, you guys won't look so stupid by saying: Right on! Bagus ini judges. "These judges are fair and brave".

Or are Malaysians willing to burn the credibility of the judges and the Federal Court just for political mileage?
What do you think?

Kalau penyokong pembangkang dah tak percaya Mahkamah lagi, katakanlah secara terang-terang.
Bukan, hari ini Sokong sebab keputusan mahkamah mereng kepada anda.
Tapi esok, Kutuk habis sebab keputusan tak selari dengan cita-cita dan nafsu.

Head I win, Tails also I must win.
Hancur negara macam nih!


------------------------------------------------------
TAMBAHAN 5.55ptg
------------------------

Sama ada anda setuju dengan saya, atau marah saya, baca di sini: http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/20708/84/

(terima kasih kepada komen dari IbnAbdHalim).

Panjang cerita bekas hakim kanan ini, nak lawan balik pun tak ada kepintaran.
Tetapi saya petik pendek juga yang saya rasa penting:

"I don’t have to tell you how to judge the judge. You must know by now how to do it if you have read my articles in the Internet. You will know he is a bad judge if he behaves unfairly to one side as against the other.
"It is your perception as a member of the public that matters and not what the judge thinks of himself. A judge who does not appear to be fair is useless to the judicial process.
"As such he is a bad judge and is therefore unfit to sit on the bench. The other essential qualification of a judge is to administer justice according to law."

Kalau begitu qualification jadi hakim pun susah juga.
1) Macam mana saya, sebagai orang luar yang tak ada kena mengena dengan sesuatu isu, nak tahu bahawa hakim itu "behaves unfairly to one side as against the other".

Misalnya, kes rogol lah katakan. Seorang lelaki dituduh merogol seorang kanak-kanak kecil.
Orang ramai pasti marah besar terhadap lelaki ini, terutama apabila kes itu jadi cerita besar di akhbar dan TV.
Sedangkan lelaki ini mungkin tak bersalah.
Jadi jika seorang hakim membebaskan lelaki ini kerana dirasa tak bersalah selepas lihat bukti macam mana?
Adakah dia dituduh "behaves unfairly to one side as against the other"???
Adakah hakim mesti ikut kehendak orang ramai?


2) Jadi dalam kes Perak ni, kalau prinsip itu diikut, kenapa harus dilihat dari kacamata Pakatan saja? Iaitu mahkamah telah "behaves unfairly to one side as against the other"???
Kenapa tak tanya orang Umno???
Tentu dia kata keadilan telah terbela!
Hah amacam?

DUN Penanti - Sukar Umno-BN nak menang

Baru bulan Ogos lalu (lapan bulan lalu) ramai berjuang di kawasanundi Permatang Pauh, Penang.
Nampaknya ramai akan ke sana lagi tidak lama lagi.
Letih juga asyik mengundi aje Malaysia ni.

DUN Penanti (pengundi 15,400) adalah sebahagian dari Parlimen Permatang Pauh.
Dan katanya PKR nak letak Dr Mansor Othman, orang kuat Anwar.
Boleh menang ke Umno?
Penduduk: 73 peratus Melayu, 24 Cina, 2 India.

Secara kasar: Jika yang sokong PKR ialah 40 peratus daripada orang Melayu di sana, 80 peratus dari masyarakat Cina dan kesemua orang India, nampaknya Umno-BN kalah.
Ini kerana PKR boleh dapat 55 peratus dari jumlah undi.
(Fairus mendapat 59 peratus undi dalam Mac 2008).

Ini Serambi Anwar.
Dan ramai penyokong PAS.

1Malaysia vs Bangkitlah Melayu

As I wrote before, the new guys with the PM Office and PM Department, level 4 or otherwise, better get ready to manage expectations - or get into trouble fast.

First problem was handling how the two Bukit by-elections would be seen in the public eye, when they were expected to lose.
Second, in handling how the Cabinet announcement would be seen.

And today, we must talk about Nurturing of Image.
Shockers of shockers is that headline in Utusan Malaysia, Bangkitlah Melayu.

It's really up to Utusan and the guys quoted there if they want to play with sensitive issues.
But really, should Utusan have run the story two weeks into a new administration?
It is, after all, an Umno-OWNED newspaper.
Everything that comes out there will be seen as "government ask you to write" (I know the feeling, working with my newspaper in Singapore).

To some people, the story is not that bad. Biasalah, naikkan semangat Melayu.
And that the opposition is just hitting the story hard because it IS the opposition's job to find everything wrong with this government.
If the government masak capati sedap pun, depa kata tak sedap. Capati yang Kit Siang atau Anwar masak aje yang sedap.

But I wonder who decided to run that kind of story and that kind of headline in the first place.
At a time when 2-week old PM is trying hard to cultivate a multiracial approach to issues?

The idea would come from be one of these:
(1) Utusan editor/s.
(2) PM Najib Razak (perhaps playing Good Cop vs Bad Cop - 1Malaysia vs Bangkitlah Melayu).
(3) PM Najib's boys.
(4) Some Umno leaders without knowledge of the PM [if WITH knowledge of the PM, then it is item (2)].

Whatever it is, the Utusan report erodes the goodwill that the premier wants to build up with the Chinese, Indians and others.
Hey hey hey - look below the headline of Bangkitlah Melayu: got picture of PM Najib lagi masak capati, you.
He was cooking up capati. In a Sikh temple some more!

So how now brown cow?
Freedom of press, as promised by new PM, ke Utusan?
(OK cukuplah tu, nanti I punya kawan-kawan kat Utusan marah I pulak).

RM18m taxi mess at M'sian Tourism Ministry

The Tourism Ministry bought five cars to be used as taxis for about RM1.4mil each. Makkkkdatok.
It is part of a RM18mil mess at the ministry.

Read The Sun's R. Nadeswaran here and here.

An excerpt:

The key question is: What is the principal role of Tourism Malaysia?
Annually, millions of ringgit are allocated to the agency to promote tourism.
Why then did it venture into this business?

Terengganu - Umno BN bergolak pula

Baru kita ingat dunia politik Malaysia akan sonyap 'kit minggu ni, Terengganu pula bergolak.
Nampaknya semakin ramai ADUN Umno tak suka dengan MB Ahmad Said.
Jika dulu Abdullah Badawi tak dapat menahan Ahmad jadi MB, kini kita nak lihat sama ada PM Najib Razak dapat kekalkan Ahmad sebagai MB.

Yang pasti ini berita sangat buruk bagi Umno dan BN.
Dah lah pembangkang semakan kuat, Umno BN sesama sendiri pun tak sehati sejiwa, sehingga berpecah di depan mata semua orang.
Kalau dah sanggup boikot DUN dua hari, maknanya dah teruk sangat.

Bangkok dalam keadaan bahaya, rakyat amok

Jika tak perlu, tak payah lah ke Bangkok atau mana-mana di Thailand buat sementara ni.
Macam-macam kekecohan, say dengar.
Wartawan akhbar Straits Times di Bangkok memberitahu saya dah makin kecoh bukan saja di ibu negeri tetapi juga di bandar-bandar besar di utara (di mana bekas PM Thaksin berpengaruh kuat dan kumpulan kemeja-tee merah berang).

Kenapa bergaduh? Ianya begini:

Kemeja-tee Kuning - tak suka dengan bekas PM Thaksin Shinawatra, kerana membantu orang Thai di utara yang miskin.
Si kumpulan Kuning ni kebanyakannya orang bangsawan Bangkok - profesional dan yang kaya - mereka kata orang bangsawan saja yang patut memerintah Thailand.
Dan undi tak patut diberi kepada orang miskin (kebanyakannya di utara - dan yang Islam miskin di selatan) yang dituduh senang dibeli dengan membuat jalanraya, klinik dan program membasmi kemiskininan (yang dilakukan Thaksin dulu).

Kumpulan Kuning inilah yang menutup lapangan terbang tahun lalu dan buat kekecohan di Bangkok, sehingga due perdana menteri dari parti pro-Thaksin jatuh, diganti dengan PM Abhisit dari kumpulan mereka.
Mereka pakai baju Kuning sebab nak tunjuk pro-Raja (macam Malaysia ler). Sebab Thaksin dituduh anti-Raja Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Kemeja-tee Merah - kaum peladang, drebar teksi, orang kampung dan 'orang miskin' tentu marah dituduh bodoh, senang dibeli dan tak patut diberi undi!
Jadi giliran mereka pula nak jatuhkan PM Abhisit dari kumpulan Kuning.
Sabtu lalu mereka dapat tamatkan perjumpaan Asean di Pattaya dengan serbuan ke hotel mesyuarat itu. Sekarang mereka bawa isu ini ke Bangkok.
Thaksin mahu kembali ke Thailand nak jadi PM lagi. Dia di Hong Kong.
Masa dia PM dulu, habis askar dia disyaki membunuh kumpulan pemisah Islam (yang member atau yang disuspek) di selatan Thai.

Sabtu lalu, ada kumpulan ketiga muncul:
Kemeja-tee Biru: Ini disyaki pro-Kuning dan disyaki juga mungkin geng tentera. Yang nak belasah Merah.

Kecoh, 'bang.
Kita ke Langkawi saja lah.

Datuk K, Siti, Amy Search nafi masuk PAS

Fuyoh.
Kalau Datuk K & Siti masuk PAS macam mana? Siti jadi ketua Muslimah?
Jika Amy masuk PAS pula? Dia jadi naib presiden?

Dalam seminggu ini, Datuk K dan Amy kena nafi masuk Parti Islam.
Kedua-duanya ke Kelantan dan bergambar dengan Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

Baca cerita Datuk K nafi di sini. Ada gambar.
Kemudian baca cerita Amy pula di sini. Ada gambar beliau dengan Tok Guru Nik Aziz lagi, you!

Saya tak rasa mereka masuk kot, tapi syiok juga tengok gambar-gambar ni!

Kecoh di Pattaya - Asean dibatal, perintah darurat

UPDATE 9.45PM
--------------------

Perintah darurat di Pattaya dibatalkan setelah ribuan kumpulan demo dah balik. Ketua-ketua Asean pun dah terbang balik, termasuk PM Najib Razak.
Tapi Thailand malu besar. Dah sekarang orang tanya - PM Abhisit ni boleh tahan lama ke tidak?

Dan lagi satu masalah besar: Yang bergaduh dengan tentera kali ini mereka yang pakai teeshirt warna merah (the Red Shirts), penyokong Thaksin dan puak rakyat miskin.
Yang tahun lalu menutup lapangan terbang Thailand ialah Yellow Shirts, penyokong puak orang kaya di Thailand.
Hari ini pula timbul kumpulan baru, The Blue Shirts.
Mereka ni yang memulakan serangan hari ini yang menyebabkan Red Shirts marah dan serang tempat mesyuarat Asean diadakan.
Blue Shirts dipercayai puak tentera atau puak anti-Thaksin.
Hancur negeri ini kalau terus begini.


----------------------------------------------------------

ORIGINAL POSTING
-------------------------

Mesyuarat Asean di Pattaya telah dibatalkan.
PM Najib Razak dan PM Lee Hsien Loong antara ketua negara Asean di sana.
Mesyuarat dibatal kerana demo oleh ribuan penyokong bekas PM Thaksin.
Pemerintah Thai umum perintah darurat di Pattaya dan kawasan sekelilingnya, Chonburi.

Pilihanraya Indonesia - Demokrat & SBY di depan

Seperti yang dijangkakan di posting saya sebelum ini, parti-parti (atau partai-partai) yang mendahului dalam pilihanraya umum Indonesia (Pemilu 2009) ialah:

- Partai Demokrat, yang diketuai Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, atau SBY. Mendapat 20 peratus undi (2004: 7 peratus).
- PDI-P, Megawati Sukarnoputri. 15 peratus (2004: 18.5).
- Golkar, Jusuf Kalla. 15 peratus (2004:21.6).

Keputusan di atas bukan angka muktamad.

Dengan jumlah pengundi 171 juta (makdatok), bermakan minggu nak kira semua.
Kertas undinya saja sebesar akhbar - lihat di sini.

Angka di atas adalah dari quick-count surveys - kiraan kilas secara rambang, iaitu syarikat-syarikat survey telah meletak pengira undi di kira-kira 2,000 pusat mengundi daripada 500,000 lebih (setengah juta!) pusat mengundi. Setelah mengundi, kotak dibuka dan dikira di situ juga dan dijumlahkan. Kerusi Parlimen nasional DPR ialah 560.

Walaupun bukan total, angka-angka mereka ini dijangka tak tersasar jauh - sama seperti kita selalu baca survey Merdeka Center di Malaysia - depa telefon atau jumpa 1,000 orang saja, takkan nak tanya 10 juta pengundi nak tahu hati mereka.

Ketiga parti besar yang mendahuhui itu diikuti parti-parti yang "cenderong kepada Islam". Di Indonesia media gunakan istilah "Islamic-leaning parties" atau "Muslim-oriented", bukan Islamic parties.
Sebab warnanya hijau muda, bukan hijau gelap macam PAS di Malaysia (Eh sebenarnya PAS sekarang pun dah jadi Islamic-leaning aka Erdogans, bukan lagi "fundamentalist").

- Parti-parti Islam kalah teruk kali ini. Sebabnya rakyat Indonesia dah penat dengan retorik agama dan lebih suka dengan parti yang boleh menaikkan taraf kehidupan rakyat.

Parti berdasar Islam yang besar - PKS, PKB, PAN dan PPP - mendapat lebih kurang sejumlah 15 peratus undi (2004: lebih 30 peratus!).

Dari antara mereka ini, hanya Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) yang steady sebab berpengaruh kuat di bandar-bandar. Ia mendapat 7.7 peratus berbanding 7.3 dalam 2004. PKS diketuai Tifatul Sembiring dan Hidayat Nurwahid.

- Parti lain yang *timbul ialah Gerindra (diketuai bekas Jeneral Prabowo Subianto) dan Hanura (ketuanya bekas Jeneral Wiranto).

(*Banyak yang akan tenggelam - Dari 38 parti yang mengambil bahagian, hanya 8-10 dijangka boleh bertanding pada pilihanraya 2014. Jika parti anda gagal mendapatkan sekurang-kurangnya 2.5 peratus undi, kena tutup kedai).

Selepas keputusan ini, parti-parti ini akan cuba mencari partner untuk Pilihanraya Presiden pada 8 Julai.

Jika Demokrat berpakat dengan PKS, mungkin SBY jadi Presiden lagi dan Tifatul atau Hidayat jadi Wapres (Wakil Presiden = Vice President). Mungkin.

Jika Demokrat berpakat dengan Golkar sekali lagi macam 2004, Jusuf Kalla mungkin kekal jadi Wapres, mungkin juga tidak.

Sebab kemungkinan besar Golkar akan adakan pakatan degan parti lain.
Yang pasti, tiga calon Presiden utama ialah SBY, Jusuf dan Ibu Mega.


Gambar: Dilihat dari Malaysia, menarik logo bintang tiga-segi Partai Demokrat. Ia mengakui sebagai parti 'nasionalis' dan pada masa yang sama 'religius' (bersandar agama)? Jika di Malaysia, kena balon pakai tagline seperti itu sebab penyokong PAS akan kata kalau ikut agama mana boleh jadi nasionalis?

Najib must manage expectations or get Badawi'ed

If new PM Najib Razak does not want to go the way of his predecessor's very short and colourless reign, his comms people must quickly gather their wits and learn how to MANAGE EXPECTATIONS.
If they fail, they can be Badawi'ed very fast because the electorate right now is tired of fun and games, and want to see things resolved.

It is wrong to say that PM Najib does not have a honeymoon period. He does.
But his honeymoon is like going to Langkawi for 2 nights, instead of touring London, Paris, New York for 2 weeks.
People will give him a very short rope to see what he can do. If he fails, they will give him and the government a longer rope for them to hang themselves.

I already see problems with the managing of expectations.

1) A few days before people in Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau went to polling stations, there was already strong anecdotal evidence that Barisan Nasional would lose. Maybe not as badly as it turned out, but by a slim margin.
But instead of playing the underdog to gain the sympathy of voters, I saw this headline in the Star newspaper: Ismail: Kuala Sepetang is ours.
Read story here.

The story did NOT back up the headline, but most people will naturally enough remember the strong headline.
The BN candidate is saying that the Chinese district in Bukit Gantang, in which Umno-BN had lost badly in March general elections, has now turned back to BN.
Orang Cina dah taubat, dah letih dengan Pakatan Rakyat.

But the real results, according to data given by PAS: About 80 per cent of Kuala Sepetang voted for PAS-PR, up from 64 per cent in the GE last year.
Kuala Sepetang has a 97 per cent Chinese voting population.

And of course, there was the usual problem of leaders when asked by reporters, saying "We are confident of winning", "Kita yakin akan menang".
And TV3, for goodness sakes, must learn to curb its excesses in painting the other side black during elections and by-elections lah (They also whack the opposition every night of the week, but it gets much worse during polls).

Let me tell you an old story (stop yawning, you idiot): I was covering the Singapore general elections wayyyy back in the 1980s. So long ago I cannot remember the year except it was somewhere between 1987-1990. I was in Berita Harian Singapore.
At that time many Singaporeans were fed-up of the government (I cannot for the life of me remember why). So many people whispered around that: "This time, we all vote opposition to show these PAP *bastards their place."
(*I don't know whether they said "bastards". They probably used far worse words lah).

I followed several ministers around in their campaigning.
And just like 2-3 days before voting, the government party realised that heck: All these whispers are dangerous.
So instead of going around saying "We are confident of winning", they asked the voters (something like):
"Many people are saying they will vote opposition this time around. They will let their neighbours vote for PAP to show their anger.
"But what if everyone is saying the same thing and everyone voted opposition?
"You will wake up and find that the opposition has won and will rule Singapore".

This message was repeated by all PAP chiefs in the last few days of campaigning.

Fast forward: If you look at what happened in last year's GE in Malaysia, even though everyone and his mother were saying the government will kena teruk this time, you have then-PM Abdullah Badawi and then-DPM Najib too saying on TV repeatedly: "We are confident of winning".
By this time, I had heard reports that four to five states would fall, and BN would not get its 2/3 majority in Parliament. I didn't believe it then, but the government would have its intelligence agencies telling it the same.

Singapore had in that 1980s elections used reverse psychology, knowing that Singaporeans do NOT want a new government, only to show these PAP "bastards" to be less arrogant.
I don't know whether saying the same things last year would have turned the tide in Malaysia (probably NOT!), but knowing full well then that things were bad, some other strategy should have been employed immediately to persuade voters from backing the opposition.

A short story: I was in Kelantan for the GE for two weeks. During that time, Abdullah, Najib and KJ were all in the state like every other day to campaign. I don't think Abdullah went to Perak and Kedah at all to campaign - I heard the Perakians were angry for this.
Both Perak and Kedah fell, and they didn't win Kelantan.
Bengap punya strategists.

Oh, in case you're wondering. The PAP won BIG in that year, because every Ah Beng, Mat and Muthu voter said: "Yeah hor, if PAP lose, then opposition bastards come to power. Walauleh, cannottttt!"

It pays to listen to the ground and act accordingly, not blunder with the same tired old methods.


2) A few days before PM Najib announced his Cabinet, there were a lot of expectations and rumours.
Bloggers wrote that the corrupt and tainted should not be there.
Some people thought that to break away from Dr Mahathir Mohamad, the Old Man's Old Guard should all be dropped. And please do not include his son, even if he won the Umno Youth elections (Mukhriz lost), some said.
And worse of all, I thought, was this story from the government's national news agency Bernama headline - A leaner Cabinet under Najib?

It took the whole debate over the Cabinet into a new area by suggesting that PM Najib will merge ministries and have a smaller Cabinet.
Lean and mean.
Sure, there was a question mark in the headline.
But the story came from Bernama.
In journalist circles, when a story like that was published in a mainstream media (whether Bernama, NST, TV3, or The Straits Times in Singapore), people will conclude that this was a story leaked by PM Najib's people.
That he wanted people to believe this: Look out guys I will merge ministries and have much fewer Cabinet that then 32 ministers now.

Look at the first three paras of the story:

KUALA LUMPUR, March 31 (Bernama) -- Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, who is set to take over the prime ministership from Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, is expected to introduce a leaner cabinet, analysts said.

They said that a smaller cabinet would be more in tune with the current situation and in line with the new Umno president's vision to have a line-up that is solid, efficient and with integrity.

They also expect several ministries to merge to address redundancy among agencies and create a better coordinated as well as efficient administrative machinery.

In the end, the number of ministers came down from 32 to 28 (empat orang aje) dan the number of ministries was reduced by errrrrr, just one.
So again, just this one story - which theme of lean and mean was picked up by many bloggers - had done a lot of damage to PM Najib.
Because it had led people to believe that he would indeed do magic and reduce the XXXL-sized Cabinet of Abdullah, which people find a big waste of money. Ask around and you will see that whether the U.S. or India or Indonesia, the Malaysian Cabinet is among the largest in the world.

And PM Najib should also have quietly leaked to certain media and bloggers that although he would like to have a complete break from tradition, he would still have to raise ministers ACCORDING TO GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS, and also that the 13 COMPONENT PARTIES would all have to be rewarded.
Whether tainted or not, he might not have a choice, those were the words that should have been leaked.
Ie he cannot break away from this mould, or else the state/component party without a full minister or at least deputy minister could cause trouble.

And his people should have leaked that Mukhriz will likely be on board, to kill speculation now heating up that Dr M had a big say in the line-up.
Lu orang tak pernah tengok itu siri West Wing ke? Gi beli DVD dan tengok ler macam mana nak handle public relations and public disasters.

Manage expectations well, or get Badawi'ed.

Kertas undi besar - Malaysia lawan Indonesia

Masa pilihanraya kecil di Bukit Selambau, Kedah, rakyat Malaysia terkejut kerana 15 calon nak rebut satu kerusi.

Wah, kata mereka, ini kena buat kertas undi yang paling besar pernah dibuat di Malaysia.

Besarnya ialah sebesar kertas A4.

Di Indonesia 11,200 calon nak rebut 560 kerusi parliment nasional, DPR. Maknanya, purata 40 calon bagi setiap kerusi.

Ada tempat yang sampai 100 calon oi.

Ini kerana tidak seperti di Malaysia dan Singapura, lebih dari seorang calon DARI PARTI YANG SAMA boleh bertanding di sesuatu kawasanundi.

Jadi jika 5 calon Golkar nak lawan di situ, silakan bapak.

Jika dari Partai Demokrat ada 10 yang nak tanding di tempat yang sama, lantak ler.

Depa pakai gambar lagi, bukan logo partai.

Lihat gambar kertas undi.

Bak kata P. Ramlee: Besau.

Puji-pujian saya tentang Cabinet baru Malaysia

Ok, cukuplah tu.

Sekarang saya nak main balik video-video lama saya. Cerita-cerita lama ni bagus belaka, walau kadang-kadang gambarnya kelabu sikit.

Altantuya - Means, motive, opportunity.

UPDATE 10pm
-------------------

Lawyer for Altantuya family, Karpal Singh:
“I think it is important to establish the motive. What motive did the two have? They didn’t even know this woman.”


-----------------------------------------------------
ORI POSTING
-------------------

OK, so I watch a lot of murder movies.
In court, they always ask the 2 'M' and 1 'O' -
The two cops had the Means (gun and C4).
They had the Opportunity because they picked her up and took her away.
Errrrr, what is the MOTIVE???


From wiki:

In US Criminal law, means, motive, and opportunity is a popular cultural summation of the three aspects of a crime needed to convince a jury of guilt in a criminal proceeding.
Respectively, they refer to: the ability of the defendant to commit the crime (means), the reason the defendant had to commit the crime (motive), and whether or not the defendant had the opportunity to commit the crime (opportunity).
Ironically, motive is not an element of many crimes, but proving motive can often make it easier to convince a jury of the elements that must be proved for a conviction.

2 dihukum mati. Tapi siapa arah bunuh Altantuya?

Dua komando polis, Sirul dan Azilah, dihukum mati kerana membunuh rakyat Mongolia Altantuya Shaariibuu.


Tapi mungkin ramai akan tertanya soalan yang tidak terjawab di mahkamah:
- SIAPA yang arah mereka bunuh?
- Atau mereka berdua ini memang ada niat nak membunuhnya dengan sendiri dari mula lagi?
- SIAPA yang menelefon mereka untuk ke rumah Razak Baginda untuk pick up wanita ini yang kemudian di bawa ke Shah Alam?

Saya khuatir begini:
Justice is done. But is it seen to be done?


--------------------------------------------------------
Azilah And Sirul Sentenced To Death

SHAH ALAM, April 9 (Bernama) -- Shah Alam High Court today sentenced Chief Inspector Azilah Hadri and Corporal Sirul Azhar Umar to death by hanging after they were found guilty of murdering Mongolian woman Altantuya Shaariibu.

Indonesia goes to the polls today!

.
Today Thursday, Southeast Asia's biggest economy and democracy and the world's biggest Muslim nation goes to the polls. After two weeks of campaigning - generally peaceful! no tear gas!


(I think enough people have commented on the new Malaysian Cabinet to be formed by new PM Najib Razak.
Yes yes, Khairy Jamaluddin won't be made a minister.
And there is a verdict expected today too on the Altantuya case!)


But on the Indonesian elections,
Why should Malaysians and Singaporeans care?

Because if Indonesia's 230 million population is not governed properly, millions of them will cross the seas to enter our countries to work.
The same happened with Malaysian workers in the 1970s - I was a schoolboy then and we used to have lots from Malaysia the Mat Kotai (construction workers) and Minah Current (because they work in electrical and electronics factories - so banyak lah dia kena 'current' dan 'voltage', get it?). Malaysia was dirt poor then.

But thanks to leaders like Dr Mahathir Mohamad - demonised today by the same idiots who are now educated, own big houses, drive two cars and holiday abroad - who created enough jobs in the country, that people like ME tumpang cari makan in Malaysia for long years.

As Malaysians know too well, there are also easily 2 million Indonesian workers in Malaysia, legal and illegal. That is less than 1 per cent of the Indonesian population!
So imagine if the country cannot create enough jobs, the neighbours will not be able to absorb millions more excess workers.

From my work with the South-east Asia and South Asia desk of my newspaper, right now among the countries in Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the one that I think has the best growth potential.
It is more religiously and culturally diverse and tolerant than Malaysia and Singapore.
See the coat of arms above - Bhinneka Tunggal Ika - my favourite motto when I was a schoolboy. It means Unity In Diversity. Beautiful.
Garang itu burung Garuda.

But it still has to fix its system 10 years after the Suharto era of Ode Baru (New Order), of course. Indonesia has had its street Reformasi (copied later by Anwar Ibrahim).
Corruption remains endemic, population growth is too fast, and dear God I hope the murderous JI is well and truly dead and will not explode another bomb.

The others (don't sue me if you disagree):
Singapore - overdeveloped and everything is too pricey from salaries to rentals.
Malaysia - searching for its political soul and poorly managed despite many resources.
Thailand - too volatile its political situation. As I write this, some 200,000 people are amassed in Bangkok, trying to topple the government, yet again.
Philippines - too shaky its political system, big problems in the south.
Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia - one-party systems still trying to get out of its shackles.
Myanmar - bunch of murderer generals.
Brunei, Timor Leste - too tiny, no resources.


So back to Indonesia and its voting:
It's amazing when you consider that it has nearly 171 million registered voters, vs 10 million in Malaysia. And maybe 20 people who vote regularly in Singapore because the rest are walkovers (heehee, just kidding lah, Singapore Government Censor! Oklah I concede: 30 people vote regularly. Happy now?)

As I have written before, Malaysia pales in comparison in other areas too.
There are 38 national parties and 11,200 candidates in this year's Indonesian polls - an average of 20 candidates for each of the 560 Parliament seats!
Each voting paper is like the size of a page of Utusan Malaysia.

Out of this 38 though, some 8 to 10 only will survive. Those parties that polled fewer than 2.5 per cent of valid votes cast cannot contest in the next general elections (Of course their vain leaders can open a new party with a new logo).

Those parties with at least 25 per cent of the total votes, or 20 per cent of the Parliament seats, can offer a candidate to become the next President of Indonesia.


Now, I am making a, ahem, final bet (Jangan marah ya, Prof Hamirdin):

- President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY)'s Partai Demokrat should be the biggest winner. Maybe 20-25 per cent of the total votes.

- Followed by Golkar, the party of Vice-President Jusuf Kalla.

- And then the party with the sexy black-bull logo Partai Demokrasi Indonesia-Perjuangan (PDI-P) of Megawati Sukarnoputri.

- Between fourth to sixth place should be the new party of former Kopassus special forces general, Prabowo Subianto (former son-in-law of Suharto). His party is Gerindra, Partai Gerakan Indonesia Raya.

- To shorten the story, the rest will be the Islamic parties - Partai Keadilan Sejahtera PKS, Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa PKB, Partai Persatuan Pembangunan PPP, and maybe even Amien Rais' Partai Amanat Nasional PAN. The Islamic parties are expected to do poorly.



After this legislative elections, the parties will form coalitions to offer candidates for President and Vice-President.
The presidential elections is in July.
More 'party' time!
Macam Malaysia, nak election aje, tak mau kerja.

At the end of it all, most observers expect SBY to remain President, but with a new Vice-President, possibly from one of the Islamic parties (from PKS or PKB?).

Rojak Mamak Singapura - Dua mati kes keracunan

Sedang Malaysia sibuk berjuang di bukit dan sungai, dan jutaan rakyat Indonesia akan mengundi esok (Khamis), di Singapura cerita terbesar ialah isu ROJAK MAMAK di Geylang.
Dua orang makcik Melayu telah meninggal setelah memakan rojak di sebuah gerai yang terkenal di pasar Geylang.
Dan kira-kira 100 lagi yang telah kena cirit-birit dan demam. Ramai yang masuk hospital.

Fuyoh, inilah kes keracunan terbesar dan paling teruk di negeri Temasek ni.

Penjualan rojak mamak di tempat lain semua jatuh mendadak. Orang takut dan geli.

Kuah basi ke?

Atau bahan rojak 3 hari digoreng semula?

Atau pekerja tak jaga kebersihan diri?

Atau mungkin kena sabo?

Apapun, pemerintah Singapura (Singapore tak ada 'kerajaan', tetapi 'pemerintah'. Raja Melayu dah hilang di dunia) dah tutup pasar sementara Geylang ni. Nak cuci bersih dan bunuh tikus mondok yang besau-besau macam kucing.

------------------------------------------------------

Second woman dies in Indian rojak case

Dari straitstimes.com

ANOTHER woman who fell into a coma after eating Indian rojak from a popular store at a Geylang Serai hawker centre on Friday has died.
Madam Noraini Kassim, 59, died at 9.58am on Wednesday, five days after she was warded in Alexandra Hospital's intensive care unit.
Alexandra spokesman said that the cause of death is still undetermined pending coroner's investigation.
Her husband Mr Mohd Salleh Sapir, 65, said that Mdm Norani had a history of diabetes.
He was also told that the bacteria in her stomach was affecting her liver and heart.
Canteen assistant Madam Aminah Samijo, 57, died earlier on Monday after eating the rojak on Friday, along with her husband, Mr Omar Ali, who is in his 50s. Madam Aminah became violently sick on Friday night, and suffered vomiting and severe diarrhoea.
She was taken to the Changi General Hospital, but lapsed into a coma and died without regaining consciousness.

Makdatok - 'Status Quo' kata NST, Star

Saya ramai sungguh rakan karib di NST, Star, Utusan dan Berita Harian.
Tetapi saya rasa gerammmmm sikit tengok tajuk berita di muka satu kedua akhbar ini

NST - 'It's Status Quo'
Star - 'Status Quo'.
Maknanya tak ada yang berubah, kedudukan kekal. Semuanya OK.

- Berita Harian, tajuk berita yang besar ialah 'BN menang Batang Ai'.
Cerita yang kalah 2-0 di dua bukit tu tajuk kecil-kecil.

- Utusan, lagi cantik: BN 1, PAS 1, PKR 1.
Tajuk kecil: Status quo tiga pilihan raya kecil kekal.
Maknanya kalau main bola, draw. Tak ada yang menang.

Hancurlah 'bang, kalau nak tipu diri sendiri begini.
Ada orang telefon ke suruh letak perkataan magik ni?

Saya tak nak cakap banyak. Kalau tidak mampos semua rakan hamba lari.
Tetapi Sakmongkol, orang kuat Umno, dah bagi cukup-cukup dengan pandangan Status Quo ni. Baca di sini Very unStatus Quo.

The victories reinforce the status quo in the sense they do not change the rakyat's anguish and rejection of BN and BN's polices.
If we were after retention of status quo in the first place, it would have been better off for everyone to give a walkover to the political parties that held the seats before
the by elections. It would have been cheaper too.

Undi Kedah - negeri 'Malay belt' lari dari BN....?

Menurut pandangan orang luar seperti saya, yang dah lama tak ke Kedah, negeri itu sama seperti semasa pemerintahan kerajaan BN dulu.
Walaupun dah setahun di bawah Pakatan Rakyat, dengan Menteri Besarnya orang PAS, berita besar yang kita baca mengenai Darul Aman ini ialah mengenai isu-isu kontroversi - mungkin kerana mainan media arus perdana.
- Isu Pulau Pinang marah Kedah kerana nak potong pokok jadikan balak. P. Pinang khuatir kawasan tadahan air akan berkurangan.
- Isu rumah yang diketepikan kepada bumiputera walaupun, menurut ceritanya, orang Cina tak puas hati.
- Orang PAS sendiri pun, jika ditanya tentang pemerintahan MB Azizan Abdul Razak, ada yang mengatakan beliau ni mempunyai cara tersendirinya nak mengendalikan negeri - independent streak. Maksudnya susah nak di 'control'.

Jadi sudah tentunya saya mengagakkan undi di Bukit Selambau ni akan menjadikan penentuan - iaitu rakyat akan lari daripada mengundi PR.

Daripada jumlah pengundi, 30 peratus adalah kaum India dan 20 peratus Cina. Tentunya ada yang nak lari ke BN, kata hati saya.
Dan tentunya, pada fikiran awal saya, ada daripada jumlah pengundi Melayu (jumlah 50 peratus) yang nak lari ke BN sebab 'tak ada kemajuan' di bawah pemerintahan PR ni.
Tersasar saya.

Jika dulu calon Bebas yang kemudian memasuki PKR menang dengan kelebihan undi 2,362, kali ini majoritinya lebih sedikit, 2,403.
Tahniah MB Azizan. Dan Ir Amiruddin Hamzah.
Saya rindu nak makan mi udang di stadium Alor Setar. Dan makan seafood di Kuala Kedah.

Yang pasti, jika di 'Malay belt state' - negeri majoriti Melayu - ni pun orang Melayu tak sokong BN, ia menjadi masalah besar untuk PM Najib Razak.

Ada empat Malay belt state:
- Kelantan dah 18 tahun dengan PAS.
- Kedah dah setahun jatuh ke pembangkang.
- Januari lalu, pengundian di ibu negeri Terengganu dimenangi PAS. Tanda hitam bagi BN dalam hala tuju negeri itu.
- Tinggal Perlis saja.

Harapan Anwar tenggelam di sungai Sarawak

Jika pembangkang boleh berdebik dada di Kedah dan Perak, di Sarawak ceritanya lain.
Parti Anwar Ibrahim PKR yang ingin menggunakan Batang Ai sebagai tapak permulaan nak berkembang di Sarawak tewas.
Dengan jumlah undi yang lebih teruk.
Calon PKR kalah dengan undi 1,854 kepada calon BN.
Ini lebih seganda dari majoriti 806 yang dimenangi BN pada 2006.

Macam-macam cerita kita boleh bawa ketengah kenapa PKR kalah.
Anwar pula dah mengaku malam ini bahawa tak menjangkakan akan menang di sana.
Lor, ceritanya kok dah lain, bapak (Telo Indonesia sikit sebab Batang Ai bersebelahan Kalimantan).

- Adakah ini bermakna bahawa orang Sarawak tetap sayang kepada BN dan kepimpinan Abdul Taib Mahmud?
- Adakah ini bermakna mereka menolak parti-parti dan cara politik dan isu politik Semenanjung?
- Adakah ini bermakna jika pembangkang Semenanjung bertanding dalam pilihanraya undangan negeri Sarawak pada 2011 mereka akan bungkus? (Walau kita akui memang ada kerusi pembangkang Semenanjung di dalam bangunan DUN di Kuching)
- Apakah cara yang boleh digunakan nak meraih undi orang Sarawak ni?
- Apakah yang boleh dipelajari oleh BN sendiri dengan kemenangan ini?

Undi Bukit Gantang - Kepimpinan Tiga N kembali?

Keputusan Bukit Gantang - un-sangka-rable, unsunkarable?
Keputusan secara detail akan diketahui esok-lusa tentang tren mengundi.
Tapi yang pasti ramai juga orang Melayu yang TIDAK mengundi Umno-BN.
Jika tidak, takkan sampai hampir 2,800 majoriti calon PAS - dulu calonnya menang dengan majoriti 1,500.

- Adakah ini bermakna orang Melayu juga mohon derhaka dan tidak menerima pembubaran kerajaan Pakatan Rakyat oleh Sultan Perak?

- Adakah ini bermakna undian seluruh Perak patut diadakan semula kerana rakyat nampaknya mahukan Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin?

- Adakah ini bermakna mereka tidak menerima kepimpinan baru Najib Razak dan Muhyiddin Yassin (dan sekaligus Dr Mahathir Mohamad!)?

- Adakah ini bermakna mereka lebih senang dengan kepimpinan Anwar Ibrahim yang dimomokkan nak menghancurkan kekuatan politik Melayu, dan lebih senang dengan Kepimpinan Tiga N = Nga-Ngeh-Nizar?

- Apa lagi yang orang Melayu mahu? Bukankah kerajaan Umno-BN selama ini, ahem, menolong semua orang Melayu?

Ah, ini baru saya tanya tentang apa yang Melayu mahu.
Isu betapa resahnya kaum minoriti juga satu perkara besar.

Undi orang Cina dan India tentu menunjukkan PM Najib kena kerja kuat untuk menarik kembali hati mereka.
Ramai tentu rasa terguris diketepikan sekian lama semasa Umno kuat dulu.

(Saya armchair critic senang ler nak bantai orang).

Dan satu lagi isu penting: pengundi Cina seperti dah tak takut lagi dengan PAS.
Dah tak boleh dimomokkan dengan mudah oleh Umno-BN.
Ini tidak bermakna mereka sokong isu negara Islam atau hudud, tetapi ianya tentu bermakna mereka sanggup menimbang isu quality calon dan melihat secara pandangan helikopter:
- adakah dengan mengundi si-polan ini akan menolong kaum aku?
- Adakah ia akan membantu perkara yang aku rasa penting?
- Adakah ia akan menolong Malaysia yang aku cintai?
Jika dulu, kalau calon PAS yang diletak, terus tak payah fikir lagi semua orang Cina calibut.

Saya rasa, begitu juga dengan kaum India sejak protes Hindraf di KLCC dulu.
Semuanya dah bertukar menjadi pengundi strategik, dan bukan mengundi secara parti.
Itulah sebabnya di Bukit Selambau - pengundi India hampir 30 peratus - calon MIC tewas.


Seperti yang saya dah kata pada 29Mac - baca di sini:
"Dalam Mac tahun lalu bila orang Cina Perak mengundi Pakatan, mereka tak tahu bahawa Pakatan akan menang besar.
Mereka mengundi, kata orang, dengan mata tertutup. Dulu undi marah!
Tetapi kali ini, mereka akan mengundi dengan mata terbuka! Ini undi dengan sengaja (Mungkin masih marah!).
Kali ini, mereka tahu yang mereka akan mengundi seorang ketua parti Islam.
Dulu mereka bukan mengundi UNTUK wakil PAS, tetapi kerana TAK MAHU mengundi Umno-BN.
Ini bermakna orang Cina dah takut lagi dengan PAS?
Atau sekurang-kurangnya tak kisah sangat dengan PAS."

BN stares at bigger losses in Bukits?

Even as counting is going on, I am reliably told that Umno-BN is losing at a bigger loss in Bukit Gantang and possibly Bukit Selambau.

- BN had won Batang Ai by a majority of 2,053 (unofficial results from Malaysiakini) - more than double the previous majority of 806. Orang Sarawak sayang BN, would be the battlecry!


- PAS had won Bukit Gantang by a majority of 1,566 votes in the GE last year. This could jump to 5,000 votes, someone said.

- An independent who joined PKR had won Bukit Selambau with a majority of 2,362 votes. This time, the gap could be bigger for PKR.

This would mean that although I got the 2-1 score correct in my previous posting, my bet on the reduced majority for the three seats would be wrong. Tersasar.
And as I have said, Umno-BN cannot afford to lose Bukit Gantang. Now it is trailing and looks set to lose by a bigger margin.

Kenapa Umno tak mampu tewas di Bukit Gantang

Saya pernah tulis di sini (lihat di bawah) bahawa Umno/BN tak mampu kalah di Bukit Gantang, Perak.
PAS dan Pakatan menggunakan pilihanraya kecil ini sebagai "referendum" nak tunjuk bahawa rakyat Perak mahukan kerajaan Pakatan kembali.
Sedangkan Bukit Gantang dulunya kubu Umno/BN dan pertama kali jatuh ke pembangkang hanya tahun lepas. Maklumlah, hampir 54 peratus pengundi Melayu.

Menurut jangkaan, lebih ramai orang Melayu mirip kepada Umno/BN kali ini di Bukit Gantang. Ini bermakna, jika ia jatuh sekali lagi ke pihak pembangkang, ini menunjukkan masyarakat Cina dan India masih terus mengundi pembangkang.
(Memang banyak isu masyarakat kedua pihak minoriti ini nak diselesaikan).
Kekalahan BN di Bukit Gantang, seperti yang saya jangkakan, bermakna kerajaan PM Najib Razak kena kerja kuat nak tarik mereka kembali ke 1Malaysia BN.


UNTUK PAS dan PR pula, jika mereka kalah di Bukit Gantang, Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin dan para pembangkang lain dah kata pun: Jika tewas, ini bukan "referendum" tapi BN gunakan helah.
Maksudnya mereka tak terima lah tu. Nak menangggggg aje pihak ni!

Nizar dalam wawancara dengan Malaysiakini:

Q: If you win by a narrow margin or lose, will you drop you claims as the legitimate Perak government?

A: Not at all! That is a separate matter... If it is a win, it encompasses everything. Even if it is a very slim majority, to me that is still an indication that people want change and the truth.

But if we lose it does not affect our position as the legitimate and rightful government. The fight in the court and in the state assembly will still go on.

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Saya ulangi posting saya pada Mac 29:

Kenapa Bukit Gantang bahaya untuk Umno/BN

Malam ini bermulalah Pesta Demokrasi di Perak, Kedah dan Sarawak.
Saya pernah menulis ceritanya sikit tentang pertandingan di dua Bukit dan satu Batang - macam lucah ya, heehee.

Di Batang Ai, Sarawak, BN dijangka menang.
Ini ramalan saya dan ramai orang lain.
OKlah tu sebab 8,600 pengundi, kebanyakannya Iban, mungkin tak begitu marah dengan kerajaan.

Di Bukit Selambau, Kedah, 30 peratus pengundi adalah kaum India. Ini satu kawasanundi yang antara paling banyak pengundi India, seperti di Ijok, Selangor.
BN tidak dijangka menang di sini. Dan tak semestinya Pakatan Rakyat-PKR menang, sebab penyokong Hindraf nampaknya tak senang hati dengan pilihan Anwar Ibrahim yang menamakan seorang penjual kereta second hand sebagai calon. Jadi yang menang mungkin calon Hindraf - calon bebas. Ini kata orang.

Tetapi, tempat yang paling bahaya untuk Umno dan Barisan Nasional, sebenarnya, ialah di Bukit Gantang, Perak.
Di sini, Pakatan meletakkan bekas menteri besar Perak Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin, yang jadi MB selama setahun-kurang-sikit. Beliau adalah dari Parti Islam SeMalaysia atau PAS.
Di sini, 60 peratus adalah pengundi Melayu.
Pengundi Cina ialah 30 peratus dan India 10 peratus.

- Jika ramai pengundi Melayu menyokong Umno-BN di Perak ni, orang tak kisah sangat. Biasalah mereka sokong parti Melayu, dan lebih lagi yang kian nak pulih.
- Jika ramai pengundi India tak sokong Umno-BN pun orang tak kisah sangat. Ini kerana mereka masih marah kerana isu-isu India belum diselesaikan dan ketua-ketua Hindraf - semua hero yang memperjuangkan mereka - masih merengkok di penjara.

- Tapi yang menggerunkan untuk Umno-BN ialah jika pengundi Cina sekali lagi todak menyokong Umno-BN di Perak.
Ini kita tak boleh kata 'biasalah'.
Sebabnya begini: Dalam Mac tahun lalu bila orang Cina Perak mengundi Pakatan, mereka tak tahu bahawa Pakatan akan menang besar.
Mereka mengundi, kata orang, dengan mata tertutup. Dulu undi marah!
Tetapi kali ini, mereka akan mengundi dengan mata terbuka! Ini undi dengan sengaja (Mungkin masih marah!).

Kali ini, mereka tahu yang mereka akan undi itu ialah seorang ketua parti Islam.
Dulu mereka bukan mengundi UNTUK wakil PAS, tetapi kerana TAK MAHU mengundi Umno-BN.
Ini bermakna orang Cina dah takut lagi dengan PAS?
Atau sekurang-kurangnya tak kisah sangat dengan PAS.
Mereka tahu undi mereka itu akan menunjukkan Pakatan dan PAS lebih digemari oleh orang Cina, dan bukan Umno-BN lagi.
Itulah sebabnya sama ada Umno-BN menang atau kalah, pada saya yang lebih harus dimikroskopkan dan didalami ialah tren mengundi orang Cina ini.
Jika orang Cina dah mula mirip balik kepada Umno-BN, gembira hati PM-baru.

The Chinese in Bukit Gantang, this time around, will not vote like in March 2008 where they voted without knowing the whole country would be shaken up. And the state taken over by Pakatan.
The Chinese this time around will vote with their eyes wide open.
Fuyoh.

My bet - PR takes 2 Hills, BN wins River battle

You might disagree, but to me it is still tough to call whether Bukit Gantang will go to Umno or remain with PAS. See my previous mullings here.
The Chinese and Indians are still likely to be mostly behind Pakatan Rakyat, ie the PAS candidate. This means that most of the 36 per cent of the voters are behind PR.

But what about the Malays there? Nearly 64 per cent of the total voters are Malays.
It would be obvious to say the Malays are split, but many more seem to be tilting to BN this time around.
Why? Just like the Chinese and Indians are tired of the loud language of Umno and the keris, many Malays are increasingly tired (and worried) of the loud language of the DAP and Chinese groups in pushing previous boundaries, including the MCA which is asking for a Deputy PM, for example.

(That the minorities have real grievances cannot be denied, but still, to push too hard too soon have unnerved more and more Malays. Again, you might totally disagree because to some people, all the noises being made to defend Malay rights are coming from Umnoputeras.
(I do think, though, it is being simplistic to just say: this is Umnoputera wanting to defend their turf; and that most Malays are happy to share the wealth and top political positions in Tanah Melayu with others; and most Malays want to give everyone equal rights to set up prayer houses everywhere like the sprouting of mosques. And hey, most Malays will agree if the minorities want to say that Malaysia is not an Islamic state and they want to reduce the Malay-ruler institution, too).
(But these are different sets of arguments altogether and will involve a lot of emo for most people, so I am not going to into it. I admit too I am ill-equipped to go into this, because I was born and bred in a different country and have totally different life experience.
(Nanti orang tuduh masuk campur hal orang lain. Saya hanya menumpang di Malaysia....)
(I just wanted to show there are enough issues on the plate for rural Malays especially, and those poor urban Malays, to want to run away from Pakatan. They might not have benefited much from Umno too, but they might not like to empower the "Chinese"/DAP through PR and PAS).

Anyway, unless there is a HUGE swing by the Malay voters, then PAS-PR will still win - due to the strong Chinese support.
A big swing into Umno's vote bank is not impossible because in the March GE last year, many from Umno had voted for opposition, or they did not bother to vote.
Now Umno has gotten rid of a Prime Minister with a "mediocre" administration (in the words of my friend, Star columnist Joceline Tan). There is a new PM in charge.
Plus former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, hated by netizens and the opposition, but loved in the kampungs, is back on the campaign trail. He should be able to pull in a few votes.


My final bet: PR 2, BN 1.
My bet is that both sides will defend their seats*.
But they will all have REDUCED MAJORITY.

(*although Bukit Selambau was won by an Independent, he joined PKR, so it became a PR seats)

Anyway, below is what I had blogged in the website of my newspaper, straitstimes.com on Monday afternoon.
I had to go into some basics because not every Singaporean understand the twists and turns. Unless they follow Malaysian politics closely, I daresay Singaporeans don't know that there is a State Assembly which is separate from the federal Parliament. But thanks to the takeover of Perak by BN, I guess more of the Temasek people do now!


---------------------------------------------------------


Reme Ahmad takes out his crystal-ball ahead of M'sia's by-elections.

---

MALAYSIAN voters will go to polling booths in one constituency each in Sarawak, Kedah and Perak on Tuesday but the results will not change the face of State Assemblies of the three states.

While the bets are on a 2-1 win for either the governing Barisan Nasional coalition or the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition, things are still fluid on the ground, from my checks with players on both sides.

Let's do a short summary of the three constituencies.

1. Batang Ai, a state constituency in Sarawak

The by-election is being held here after its previous assemblyman passed away. BN is putting up a candidate from one of its Sarawak component parties, and PR has put up a Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) candidate. There is also an independent candidate. The general consensus seems to be - I say "seems to be" because there are voices who will loudly disagree - that BN will win in the constituency.

The roughly 8,000 voters are mostly from the ethnic Iban community. They are likely to vote for status quo and return a BN candidate to power.

If that is to happen, BN can shout from the rooftops that the people of Sarawak have rejected the opposition's plan to take over the timber-rich state.

But, if the Ibans and the smattering of Malays vote in a candidate from Anwar Ibrahim's PKR, then it could spell trouble for BN. The opposition can claim that even the staunch BN state of Sarawak does not want the governing coalition any more.

2. Bukit Selambau, a state constituency in Kedah.

The by-election is being held after its ethnic Indian assemblyman quit his position following bigamy allegations.

Here, BN is represented by a candidate from the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and PR has put up a PKR Indian candidate. There are also 13 independents - making it a 15-pronged contest, a record in Malaysian electoral history.

The 35,140 voters here are nearly 30 per cent Indians - one of the biggest in percentage terms in any constituency in Malaysia.

Another 50 per cent are Malays and 19 per cent are Chinese (1 per cent are Others, including Orang Asli aborigines).

In Malaysian politics where voting is often along racial lines, the Indians are thought to be against BN on complaints that the government has ignored their grouses. And many Indians are unhappy with the MIC led by former minister S. Samy Vellu, and over the detention of five leaders of the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) - two of them have since been released.

The Chinese are expected to remain mostly behind PR.

Among the majority Malays are many supporters of very-Muslim Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) who will not vote for either the BN or PR candidate because both are not Muslim! But overall, the view seems to be that the PKR-PR candidate will win. This means the state seat will remain with the opposition.

But if the voters pick BN instead, it will be a (small) reversal for BN after the loss of Kedah state to PR in the GE last year. And may even point to people wanting to give new PM Datuk Seri Najib Razak a chance to prove his worth, despite the baggage he carries to office.

3. Bukit Gantang, a Parliament constituency in Perak.

The by-election is being held after the death of its MP, a PAS leader.

In Malaysia's two-level governance system, the State Assemblies (headed by Menteris Besar and Chief Ministers) control the state, while the federal Parliament runs the country as a whole.

The PAS candidate contesting this seat, Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin, is already an assemblyman in Perak. He was the menteri besar of Perak until BN ousted him and the PR government in February. An assemblyman is allowed to run for a Parliament seat, as he is doing.

More importantly, PR is asking voters to vote for him to show BN that they prefer him as Menteri Besar and not the BN man who has taken over.

Facing him is a local Perakian from Umno-BN. If the voters pick Datuk Seri Nizar, PR will shout that the "referendum" has shown that Perakians want the PR government back.

But among the 55,562 voters, nearly 64 per cent are Malay and many seem to be tilting towards Umno-BN. Another 27 per cent are Chinese who are thought to be solidly behind PR, although the candidate is from PAS. The 9 per cent of Indian voters are thought to be mostly for PR also.

If they pick the unknown Umno-BN candidate instead, BN can go to town saying PR has been rejected.

So, my crystal ball says, while the final score is difficult to determine, Batang Ai may go to BN, Bukit Selambau to PR and Bukit Gantang could swing either way.

However, if one side were to win 3-0, the political landscape could experience a mini-tsunami.

For BN, a 3-0 win will re-energise it. Things have not improved since BN's huge loss in the March 2008 general elections (GE) - it lost five states and its customary two-thirds majority federal Parliament. It has also lost the last two by-elections since. It lost a in Permatang Pauh (Penang) which brought opposition chief Anwar Ibrahim back to Parliament. It then lost another contest in Kuala Terengganu (capital of Terengganu).

A 3-0 win by BN will also weaken the opposition front, but I think such a win is highly unlikely.

On the other hand, a 3-0 win by PR will spell disaster for Datuk Seri Najib. But, it seems unlikely, as some of the magic of Datuk Seri Anwar has faded.